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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/8)

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We are finally getting back on track with our NRFI bets helping us to settle back in. Leading into the second week of May we open with an 11-game slate. Let’s dive into my favorite bets of the day.

Season to Date: 10-11

View the best player prop bets for tonight's slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Monday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals – 7:40 ET

The Royals have been one of the worst teams in all of baseball for several reasons, but one primary reason is their pitching. Their team ERA is second worst in baseball, only bettering the Athletics, who have been truly dreadful. Zack Greinke has been a part of those struggles with an ERA over five; however, he seems to be a bit unlucky. There are almost no strikeouts these days but still no walks. However, the home run numbers are up, and he has paired that with a well below average LOB%. This season, Greinke has actually been solid the first time through with a sub-.300 wOBA allowed and gets to face a White Sox offense that is missing one of his best hitters in Eloy Jimenez. Greinke should be able to keep them off the board in the first.

For the White Sox, Dylan Cease takes the ball and faces the Royals’ bottom-five offense. Similarly to Greinke, Cease appears to be a bit of a victim of poor luck with a LOB% well outside of the normal expectation. His walks are up slightly, but he’s always had an elevated BB%. Cease has always been solid despite not being exceptional the first time through the order in his career with a 0.310 wOBA allowed. This Royals’ offense is truly dreadful, and this is a fantastic spot for Cease.

Pick: -110

Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks 9:40 ET

Zac Gallen saw his scoreless streak get broken in his last start, but that doesn’t change the fact that he has been exceptional in 2023. His K% has risen significantly, with an additional improvement to his low BB%, turning him into a true ace. In 2023, Gallen has allowed a 0.227 wOBA for the first time through the order, which is right in line with the 0.251 wOBA allowed in his career. He gets to face a rough Marlins offense with a wRC+ of only 86. While Gallen is not going to be able to keep up the insane improvements he’s made thus far, he is plenty skilled enough, and the matchup is good enough for him to keep it rolling again today.

The other side of the coin sees Braxton Garrett take the mound. Garrett had a brutal last outing which is currently clouding the full-season numbers, but he was excellent before that last outing. He gets to face a Diamondbacks’ offense that has been league average to this point against lefties with a 99 wRC+. Throughout his career, Garrett has struggled the first time through the order with an elevated wOBA allowed, but he seems to have taken a jump, and despite the terrible outing against a great offense, he is looking like an above-average pitcher.

Pick: -125

Check out our other best bets for Monday:


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