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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (6/12)

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We have eight games to choose from today, including a matchup between the best and worst teams in the league. While we only have a few games to choose from, there are still a number of interesting matchups that should provide with value to bet on.

Season to Date: 20-19

Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks – 9:40 ET

The odds on this bet are at plus money, which is rare for an NRFI bet. That number exists for a few reasons, and one of those reasons is Diamondbacks’ starter Tommy Henry.

Henry does not have numbers that jump off the page, with a K/9 under six and far too many walks and homers. His FIP is over five, and all signs do not point to someone who we would want to bet on. The reason we bet on him is that the Phillies have a 91 wRC+ against lefties which is the sixth lowest in baseball. We need this trend to continue and Henry to be able to keep that first clean.

Matt Strahm will be getting the ball first for the Phillies, and he gets to face a Diamondbacks’ offense that has a 102 wRC+ (16th) against Southpaws. Strahm was excellent as a starter to begin the season with a high K-rate and overall excellent numbers. As a starter this season, he has a 0.267 wOBA the first time through the order, and while he has only been used as an opener twice, he should be able to keep that low wOBA rolling and thus a lack of scoring in the first.

Pick: NRFI +110

Miami Marlins at Seattle Mariners – 9:40 ET

After an excellent beginning to his season, Bryce Miller has struggled his last few times out. However, his numbers the first time through the order are still excellent. He has allowed a 0.248 wOBA in that first time which is truly excellent. The Marlins’ offense is league average with a 99 wRC+. Miller should be able to get back on track in this matchup and help turn his season back around.

The other side of this game sees Jesus Luzardo take the mound. The left-hander has picked up where his excellent 2022 season left off and has arguably been even better in 2023. This season he has been lights out the first time through the order with a 0.220 wOBA allowed. Seattle has a bottom ten offense by wRC+ against left-handers, with a 98 wRC+. While they have several big names, they have struggled to begin the 2023 season, and as a result, Luzardo should be able to continue succeeding the first time through the order today.

Pick: NRFI -130

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>


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