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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks, Predictions & Odds (4/18)

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There are 17 games on the MLB slate today, including a few double headers. While the working man’s dream is to get involved with all of them to their entirety, No Runs First Inning (NRFI) is a great way to quickly get some skin in the game.

Here are my best NRFI bets for Tuesday, April 18.

Tuesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

2023 NRFI Season Record (6-3, +1.59 Units)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

This matchup features two offenses that have been relatively underwhelming in the early season, with both teams ranking in the bottom 10 in the MLB regarding runs scored per game. The game's consensus total of eight runs is reflective of their offensive struggles, as it is one of the lowest on the board for this Tuesday's slate.

The Diamondbacks will send the 25-year-old Drey Jameson to the mound, who has been phenomenal in his short professional career. Though he has not started enough ballgames to draw conclusions from his advanced analytics, his 5-0 career record with a 1.47 ERA and 1.09 WHIP speaks for itself.

Meanwhile, Jordan Montgomery has likely been the most reliable starting pitcher on this Cardinals staff that has really struggled this year. Montgomery has dealt to the tune of a 2.45 ERA (xERA in the 75th percentile) and a 1.09 WHIP so far. Though none of his advanced analytics will blow you away, he ranks above league average in average exit velo, xBA, xSLG, BB% and K%.

Busch Stadium has historically been a pitcher-friendly ballpark, with a Park Factor HR rate ranking the fourth worst in baseball since 2021. These two offenses have been too shaky to trust them to put up many runs against reliable starting pitching options, so I like this game to get off to a slow start.

Bet: No Runs First Inning (-120 @ Caesars Sportsbook)

Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs

Oakland as a home team has been an angle that I've been targeting for these NRFI plays in the 2023 season, as the Oakland Coliseum is another ballpark that is not kind to hitters (actually ranking below the aforementioned Busch Stadium in terms of offensive Park Factors and HRs). Additionally, the A's offense has been pretty dreadful, ranking fourth worst in offensive runs scored and fifth worst in offensive SLG%.

This is good news for Marcus Stroman, who has had a resurgent beginning to this season for the Cubs. Stroman has an incredible 1.00 ERA and WHIP, with his advanced metrics backing up his performances. He ranks in the top 30th percentile in the league in xBA, K%, xSLG%, xERA, barrel % and whiff %. I expect Stroman to go deep in this game and make quick work of a struggling Athletics lineup.

Stroman's counterpart for this game will be the young left-handed Ken Waldichuk, Oakland's No. 2 overall prospect. While Waldichuk's numbers don't look great through his first few starts, his average exit velo and hard hit % (both of which rank above the 65th percentile) suggest that he's been producing soft contact off the bat. His expected metrics in limited action from 2022 are better than his numbers from this year, along with a higher K% and a lower BB%. I expect Waldichuk to show some positive regression to where his expected metrics and pedigree suggest that he should be. He will get the benefit of pitching in his home ballpark on an unseasonably chilly day in Oakland in a game featuring the lowest total on the board at 7.5.

Bet: No Runs First Inning (-130 @ PointsBet)

Here are our other best bets for Tuesday:


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