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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Thursday (4/20)

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We got ourselves back into the win column on Monday, with the Giants and Marlins both keeping the other from scoring in the first. We also had a nice little bonus win with the YRFI if you bet on the Angels and Red Sox game. Today we have seven games on the slate, with the earliest at 1:35 p.m. EST.

Let’s take a look at the best NRFI bets of the day.

Season to Date: 4-7

Wednesday's Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates 6:35 PM ET

On paper, this is one of my favorite bets on the slate. The Pirates, who are a surprising 12-7 thus far, are sending Roansy Contreras to the mound. While he has gotten off to a rough start, it seems to be a bit out of sync with what we know about him in his career. The BABIP is high, and the LOB% is low, and both should find their way back to the middle. In his small career sample thus far, he has struggled a bit early in games, but this Reds offense performs much better at home, and the team is 1-5 on the road thus far in the early going.

Luke Weaver makes his 2023 debut for the Reds. While he is a solid enough pitcher, this bet is mostly against the Pirates. The Pirates just returned home after a Coors Field trip. While the Coors effect is more pronounced when you spend a longer period of time there, there is still likely to be an impact on their hitters, likely causing a slow start. Throughout his career, Weaver has been best the first time through the order, allowing a wOBA under .300. This all matches up well for Weaver and the potential that he can keep the Pirates off the board.

Bet: No Runs First Inning (-115)

Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies 6:40 PM ET

Speaking of the Coors Hangover Effect, the Rockies are obviously also coming off a stretch of home games. While it was only three games, their offense has struggled mightily on the road. They also face a left-handed starter, Matt Strahm, making it a more attractive NRFI bet. The Rockies’ offense has a 75 wRC+ against Southpaws this season, good for 23rd in baseball. Strahm has not been an excellent pitcher first time through the order in his career, yet he has been in the small sample of 2023 with a 0.220 wOBA allowed.

The tougher side of this bet is the one we are making on Ryan Felner. The Phillies, with newly appointed leadoff hitter Bryson Stott, are one of the better top halves of a lineup in baseball. Feltner has allowed a 0.327 wOBA the first time through the order. However, his career has included starts in Coors, which can help to impact this number significantly. Overall, this is the risky side of the bet. Yet, I believe that Feltner can hold the Phillies back just long enough for this bet to hit.

Bet: No Runs First Inning (-110)

Check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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