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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Thursday (4/27)

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Eleven games are on the schedule for today, with the first one beginning at 12:20 p.m. ET. Pitching as a whole this season has truly been all over the map and has made these bets increasingly tricky, but we soldier on and keep trying to find edges. Let’s dive into today’s games.

Season to date: 5-10

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Thursday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook

St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants – 3:45 p.m. ET

Logan Webb seems to be one player I am continuously targeting in these articles. He has taken a big step up this season with a K jump and an even further reduction of walks. However, this improvement is clouded by an HR problem. Throughout his career, Webb has been excellent the first time through the order, allowing a 0.282 wOBA in the beginning of games. The Cardinals’ offense is very good, which makes this a difficult bet, but Webb is talented enough to do it.

The other side of this game is Miles Mikolas, who has gotten off to a rough start in 2023. He has more K’s, but the walks have also increased, which limits one of his biggest strengths: his command. He is also allowing more HRs than ever before and is getting destroyed by a massive BABIP. His career wOBA the first time through the order is 0.277, which is way better than the over-0.400 he has shown thus far in 2023. The Giants’ offense is slightly above average and does have some talent up top, but I think this could be the get-right game for Mikolas.

Pick: -105

New York Yankees at Texas Rangers – 8:05 p.m. ET

Andrew Heaney will be starting tonight for the Rangers and despite the offensive outburst yesterday, the Yankees’ offense has been really struggling. While they are RHH-heavy at the top of the order, the Yankees have an 89 wRC+ against southpaws. Heaney had a rough first start of the season, but has only allowed two runs in the three starts since. I believe he keeps it rolling and limits the Yankees’ offense enough for us to hit this bet.

The other side of this bet is a much easier sell. Gerrit Cole has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, with an ERA under one. While I do not believe that he will continue to pitch at that level, he is an insanely talented pitcher and might be one of the best in baseball. The Rangers’ offense has a wRC+ of 120, second in all of baseball, despite missing Corey Seager. In his career, Cole has allowed a wOBA of 0.286 the first time through the order. As one of the best pitchers in the game, I think he will be able to keep a clean inning despite this talented Rangers’ offense.

Pick: -135

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