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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Thursday (5/11)

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We only have six games today, which always makes our job a bit tougher, but there are some interesting matchups on the books. We have recovered from a slow start to the season and have been trending back up in our NRFI bets. Let’s take a look at today’s slate.

Season to Date: 11-12

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Thursday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals – 2:10 ET

On limited slates like these, we have to take some chances on games we wouldn’t otherwise consider with fifteen games happening. This is an excellent example of this. Both pitchers have struggled with elevated walk rates and allowing far too many home runs. Brady Singer has been the bigger offender, as he has an extremely bloated ERA. The White Sox have been well below average, with a wRC+ of 90 and a bottom-ten ISO. Singer was excellent in 2022, so this is hopefully just a rough patch to open the season, as his LOB% of around 50% is well below average. Mike Clevinger has similarly struggled, although not to quite the same extreme as Singer. His walk rate is higher, and his HR numbers are a bit better, but he’s still showing a bloated ERA. However, he also gets to face a below-average offense with a wRC+ of 90. In order for this to hit, we are hoping that both pitchers can hold off their struggles just long enough to cash in on this bet.

Pick: +100

San Diego Padres at Minnesota Twins – 2:10 ET

Bailey Ober has been off to an excellent start, but there are some red flags in his profile. He is an extreme flyball pitcher with a sub-30 GB% who has yet to allow an HR. However, he limits walks extremely well, and the fly-ball percentage allows for him to carry a low BABIP. All of these facts mean that Ober should be able to keep pitching well even if he does start to allow HRs. The Padres offense is extremely talented on paper, and the top half of their order is one of the best in baseball, but Ober has enough talent of his own to keep them from scoring. He has a career wOBA allowed of 0.277 the first time through the order, showing that he starts games strong and should be able to keep this going.

Yu Darvish gets the ball for the Padres, and he has been successful this season despite a slight increase in his walk rate. His HR suppression and K-generation skills have allowed him to succeed despite the elevated walk numbers. Darvish has also been excellent early in games throughout his career, with a 0.276 wOBA allowed the first time through the order. The Twins have a bottom-ten offense with a wRC+ of only 92, and there don’t appear to be any signs of this improving. This all sets up well again for Darvish.

Pick: -130

Take a look at our other best bets for Thursday:


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