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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Thursday (5/18)

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We only have six games to choose from today, which makes our job a little bit more difficult but certainly not impossible. After a rough start to the season, we have begun to crawl back into the win column and we are now above 0.500 on the season.

Season To Date: 14-13

Thursday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays – 7:07 ET

Jose Berrios has actually been decent so far this season. While his ERA is still elevated in the high-fours, all of his underlying skills look much better than they did last season. The Yankees’ offense has been much better of late, which makes this a really tough matchup, but Berrios has been excellent the first time through the order in 2023. He has allowed a wOBA of only 0.268 the first time through thus far in the season; his career number is slightly worse but still solid at just over 0.300. He has a tough road to navigate in the first, but he should be able to make it through, and the short slate forces us to make some choices we might not consider otherwise.

Nestor Cortes has struggled in his last few starts, but he has some of the most outrageous splits you’ll ever see. He has allowed a 0.238 wOBA in the first go around the order, and that number balloons to over 0.600 by the time he sees hitters for the third time. The Blue Jays also have a super-talented lineup at the top and have success against lefties, but Cortes’s career numbers the first time through an order make this bet a worthwhile one.

Pick: -110

Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 ET

Dylan Cease has experienced a rough 2023 season. It’s partially due to an increase in walks but also poor LOB% luck and some other factors that should point to improvement moving forward. He gets to face the Guardians’ offense, which is the worst in the league by wRC+ at 77. While Cease has certainly had his share of issues, he is still a wildly talented pitcher with a favorable matchup for today’s game, and he should be able to succeed.

Logan Allen has been really good in his brief MLB career, with double-digit K/9 rates and a decent BB/9. It’s obviously a small sample, but his wOBA allowed the first time through the order is 0.183, which is unsustainable but demonstrates the skills he has. The White Sox offense has been improving of late after a terrible start and their wRC+ is 105 against lefties. That makes this a tougher bet, but again the small slate makes this a worthwhile gamble.

Pick: -115

Also check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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