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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Thursday (5/25)

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Ten games to choose from today, with several aces on the mound and one former Cy Young candidate returning in Kyle Hendricks. We are a few years removed from Hendricks’s peak form so it will be interesting to see which version of him we get. Let’s dive into today’s games to pick our favorite NRFI bets.

Season to Date: 15-14

Thursday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees 7:05 ET

Clarke Schmidt takes the ball for the Yankees and the right-hander has been a lot better than his surface numbers show. His ERA is at six but his estimators are showing more of a mid-four ERA pitcher. He gets a ton of K’s and while the walks are a smidge high and he’s allowing more homers than we would like to see but he’s been much better in the last few weeks. He has only allowed one homer in the last twenty innings pitched. He has pitched better at home despite being hit much harder by lefties than righties. The Orioles have several strong left-handed bats at the top of their order but I believe that Schmidt has enough talent to get through the first cleanly.

Kyle Gibson gets the ball for the Orioles and he has been solid in 2023 despite a bit of regression in skills. His strikeouts are down a bit, but the walks and home runs are low. Gibson has allowed a 0.311 wOBA in the first turn through the order and while the Yankees’ offense is certainly top-heavy, Gibson should be able to ensure that the first inning is clean.

Pick: -105

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners 9:40 ET

Logan Gilbert has an ERA in the high threes, however, his ERA estimators paint an even rosier picture for the young righty. He carries a double-digit K/9 with an extremely low walk and HR totals. He has been excellent the first time through the order with a wOBA allowed of 0.263. The Athletics offense is well below average with a wRC+ of 93. Gilbert is quietly on his way to becoming one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.

JP Sears is getting the ball for Oakland and his numbers, much like Clarke Schmidt’s, are hiding signs of real growth. Sears has a near-elite K/9 with an extremely low walk total. The issue has been the long ball as the lefty is allowing over two HRs/9. The HR issues have been somewhat better in May with a 1.5 HR/9 which has helped his ERA come down significantly. Today he gets to face a Mariners’ offense with a 92 wRC+ against left-handers. This all is lining up fantastically for Sears to post a clean first inning.

Pick: -120

Also make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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