MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Thursday (5/4)

by Paul Mammino |
May 04, 2023

There are ten games today starting as early as 1:05 pm ET. In one of these matchups, we have reigning Cy Young winner Justin Verlander making his 2023 and New York Mets debut. Letâ€™s dive into the slate to find our favorite NRFI bets of the day.

Thursdayâ€™s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Season to date: 8-11

Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays â€“ 1:10 ET

Zach Eflin has been solid in his first year pitching with the Rays. While his 3.00 ERA is better than the ERA estimators show, he is striking out about one hitter per inning while posting extremely low walk rates. Heâ€™s increased his GB% while dropping his FB%, which could be tied to an increase in cutters and a decrease in fastballs. The Pirates have been one of the best stories in all of baseball and have a wRC+ of 110. However, at an individual level, their hitters are more solid than elite and I believe that Eflin has the skill set to keep a clean inning.

Vince Velasquez gets the ball on the other side and is forced to take on the best offense in the game. Tampa has an absolutely wild wRC+ of 147 and is leading baseball in home runs. Velasquez has found a ton of success in 2023 mainly by limiting long balls. However, he has also slightly decreased his walk rate versus his career norms. Itâ€™s a difficult task for him to keep the Rays off the board, but I believe enough in the improvements Velasquez is making. He has actually struggled a bit early in games, but that seems to be correlated to when his HRs have come. I believe that he will be able to keep the Rays off the board and hold up his side of this bet.

Pick: NRFI -115

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox â€“ 2:10 ET

Lucas Giolito has been a bit of a mixed bag in 2023. The strikeouts have dropped again, but he has paired that with a massive reduction in walks. While the ERA is still slightly inflated, his estimators have him as more of a 3.75 ERA pitcher, which is much closer to his highly successful years. Giolito has been brutal the first time through the order in 2023, but his career numbers are closer to 0.316, which is solid but not spectacular. He gets to face the Twins offense, which has been league-average in the early going. This lines up well for Giolito to overcome his issues early in games.

Pablo Lopez got off to a roaring start for the Twins, but his last two starts have been rough against subpar offenses. He has raised his strikeouts to a career-high while keeping his relatively-low walk rate. In his career, Pablo has allowed a 0.295 wOBA the first time through the order and while this is not among the best in the game, it is definitely above average. He also gets to face the White Sox, which has been one of the worst teams in baseball. They have a wRC+ of 87 as a team, which is well below average, and they have struggled to score runs as a whole. Pablo should get back to his winning ways and keep the Sox off the board in this one.

Pick: NRFI -120

Check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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