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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (4/11)

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One quick way to get into baseball betting is the No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bet. Here are a couple of our favorite plays for Tuesday.

Tuesday’s Best No Run First Inning Bets

2023 NRFI Season Record (3-2, +0.11 units)

Phillies vs. Marlins First Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-125 @ BetMGM)

This game features a really good pitching matchup, with Aaron Nola going for the Phillies vs. Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins. Nola had a rough outing on Opening Day against the Rangers but bounced back to have a nice performance against a tough Yankees lineup in his second start. Nola has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the National League over the past few seasons, with his 2022 campaign perhaps being his best one in Philadelphia. His advanced metrics were off the charts last year, ranking 80th percentile or better in xBA, K%, chase rate, hard hit %, BB%, and xERA. I like Nola to continue to return to form and have a clean first inning against a Marlins offense that is tied for last in terms of average runs per game.

For the Marlins, Jesus Luzardo is one of the more underrated pitchers in all of MLB. The hard-throwing lefty has had a brilliant start to the 2023 season, going 5.2 innings scoreless in his first start and only surrendering one run in 7 innings in his second start. His average exit velocity, xBA, K%, hard hit %, xSLG, xERA, and whiff % all rank in the 80th percentile or better, which is extremely impressive. I expect this game to be a very low-scoring pitcher's duel, and I especially don't like the Phillies’ chances to score in the opening frame against one of the toughest lefties in baseball.

Rays vs. Red Sox First Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-142 @ FanDuel)

Shane McClanahan, who has been terrific for the Rays in his previous two outings, will get the ball for the Rays in this matchup. McClanahan is 2-0 on the season, having only allowed 2 runs over 12 innings pitched. The young lefty has some of the nastiest stuff in baseball, which has resulted in him having sparkling analytics. His xERA, xBA, and xSLG were all above the 80th percentile in 2022. He struck out over 30% of the batters he faced and walked less than 6%, both ranking in the top-20th percentile in the MLB. He's also exceptional at missing barrels, with his hard hit % and average exit velo both ranking in the top-30th percentile.

McClanahan is as good as they come, and the fact that he's a lefty will help further neutralize some of the firepower at the top of Boston's lineup that failed to score any runs in the opening game of this series.

Garrett Whitlock will get the ball for the first time this season for a Boston team that is searching to find reliable pitching options. Whitlock has worn many hats for the Red Sox in his two years with the team as a starter, a reliever, and even a closer. His numbers have been really solid over those two seasons, going a combined 12-6 with a 2.73 ERA. His xERA was in the 78th percentile last year as well, proving that his numbers were no fluke. He walked fewer than 5% of the batters he faced, and his whiff% and K% both ranked in the top-30th percentile in the league.

Whitlock's experience as a reliever should help in this spot as well, as he's used to emptying the tank within a few innings, not being relied upon to go deep into games. It took the Rays 8 innings to score their first run in yesterday's series opener, and I like for Whitlock to navigate through the top of their order without giving up a run on Tuesday.

Check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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