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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (4/25)

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On a big MLB slate, here are our favorite picks for first-inning bets.

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Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

2023 NRFI Record: (9-4, +3.21 Units)

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees NRFI (-135 DraftKings)

This game likely features the best pitching matchup that we will see on Tuesday night, which is reflected in the shockingly low total of 6.5. The Yankees will be sending out Nestor Cortes, who is off to a spectacular start for the second consecutive season. Cortes is one of the best in the league at generating soft contact, with his xBA, xSLG, and hard hit% all ranking in the top-30th percentile in the MLB. His xERA is at 2.97, and he avoids giving up the free pass, ranking in the 87th percentile in walks allowed with a WHIP of 1.03. Cortes pitched very well against the Twins in a more hitter-friendly ballpark at Yankee Stadium just over a week ago, allowing just two earned runs over seven innings pitched. I like him to have success against that same lineup again today.

While Aaron Judge is always looming at the top of the Yankees’ batting order, their lineup has once again been significantly hampered by injuries, making them far less dangerous. The Yankees have scored more than three runs only once in their past 6 games and will be facing off against Joe Ryan, who has been fantastic for the Twins this season. Ryan is 4-0 with a 3.24 ERA (2.46 xERA) and a 0.76 WHIP, which would be Cy Young-caliber numbers if he can keep it up. His advanced metrics are phenomenal, ranking in the top 30th percentile in xBA, xSLG, K%, BB%, and chase rate. His barrel% and whiff% rank in the 60th percentile as well. I like Ryan to continue to have success against a struggling Yankees offense today.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros NRFI (-113 FanDuel)

The second-lowest total on the board (7.5) is another NRFI that I am targeting for Tuesday evening, as Drew Rasmussen of the Rays faces off against Luis Garcia of the Astros. Rasmussen has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball in 2023, with a stellar 3-1 record with a 2.01 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. His metrics back up his performance, as he ranks in the top-30th percentile in average exit velo, hard hit%, xERA, xSLG, K%, and chase rate. He's also well above average in xBA, barrel%, and BB%. I expect Rasmussen to have another great start and make quick work of the Astros in the opening frame.

Luis Garcia's numbers would suggest that he's taken a step back from his performance in recent years, but his underlying advanced metrics are actually pretty comparable and suggest that he may be slightly affected by the shift restrictions that have been implemented in 2023. He's still been able to generate soft contact, ranking above the 60th percentile in average exit velo and hard hit%. He's also getting a fair amount of swing and misses, ranking in the top-30th percentile in chase rate, whiff%, and K%. Both pitchers will also have the benefit of pitching at Tropicana Field, which ranks in the bottom 10 in baseball in offensive park factors and has the highest strikeout rate for batters of any other ballpark in the MLB since 2021.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday:

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