MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (4/4)
We have a full slate for this Tuesday and with most teams having an off-day following Opening Day, a handful of teams have made it back around to their aces for today’s matchups. Let's dive into the slate and find our favorite bets.
Tuesday's Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, 4:10 PM ET
This NL West matchup features two top-of-the-rotation arms, with Zac Gallen facing off against Yu Darvish. Though Gallen got off to a rough start in his 2023 campaign against the Dodgers, that outing is not indicative of the type of pitcher he is. Gallen went 12-4 last season, posting a career-best 2.54 ERA (3.17 xERA, ranking in the 78th percentile). His advanced metrics were fantastic, ranking above the 70th percentile in xBA, K%, xSLG, and chase rate. For all the firepower in the Padres lineup, they were only able to eclipse three runs in one of their opening four games, and Gallen is a better starting pitcher than anyone they saw on the Rockies.
Darvish will take the mound for the first time this season, coming off of another rock-solid year in 2022. Darvish has been elite in recent seasons avoiding the free pass, walking less than 5% of the batters he faced in 2022 (91st percentile). His metrics are very comparable to Gallen's, ranking better than the 60th percentile in xERA, xBA, and K%. Arizona's lineup has also gotten off to a slow start, scoring more than two runs in just one of their games this year with only two of their major contributors batting over .250. I like these two aces to have a clean first inning and cash this bet.
Bet: 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-136)
Cleveland Guardians at Oakland Athletics, 9:40 PM ET
Shane Bieber will get the ball for the Guardians, coming off a scoreless 6-inning start against a solid Mariners lineup. He had another stellar year in 2022, racking up 13 wins with a .288 ERA (3.51 xERA ranked in the 64th percentile). He has had outstanding control of the strike zone for his entire career, walking less than 5% of his batters faced last year en route to a 5.5 K/BB ratio. He strikes out batters and misses bats at a rate well above average, with his chase rate and whiff % both ranking in the 70th percentile. He will be facing off against a very barren A's offense, who averaged a pathetic 1 run per game in their opening series against the Angels.
JP Sears is a relatively unknown commodity, earning a spot in the A's rotation after a solid 2022 season spent between the A's and Yankees. He went 3-0 in New York, surrendering only one home run in 22 innings pitched and posting a stellar 2.05 ERA with a 0.864 WHIP. Sears is a lefty, which helps to neutralize a Guardians lineup with left-handed batters and switch hitters that have an advantage against right-handed pitchers. Though his cup of coffee in the Majors didn't generate enough data to put any stock in his advanced metrics, I trust his pedigree and track record of success at the Triple-A level to be able to navigate through this Guardians lineup without allowing a run in the opening frame.
Bet: 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-160)
Check out our other best bets for Tuesday:
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
- NBA Same Game Parlay Picks
- NHL Player Prop Bet Picks
- 2023 Masters Betting Guide
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