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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/15)

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We are about a quarter of the way into the 2023 MLB season and division races are starting to take shape. While it feels like we are deep into things and leads are insurmountable, there is still so much left of the season. We have twelve games today so let’s dive into our favorite NRFI bets for the day.

Season to Date: 12-13

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Monday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox – 7:10 ET

Tanner Houck takes the ball for the Red Sox, and his numbers really don’t tell us the full story of his season. His ERA is over 5, but the estimators are more in the 4 range. However, the biggest thing to come from this season is the idea that Houck is best used as a reliever. Houck has allowed a wOBA of 0.182 the first time through the order, which is absolutely ridiculous. That number jumps significantly the second and third times, but for this bet, all we care about is the first time through. Seattle has a below-average offense overall, so this lines up well for Houck.

On the other side of the game is George Kirby, who has seemingly pitched a bit worse than his numbers actually suggest. He has an outrageously low walk rate, something that, on the surface, seems great but can sometimes mean a pitcher is throwing far too many hittable pitches. He does not get a ton of Ks, so he has to rely on BABIP luck. Kirby has actually been a bit worse the first time through the order as compared to later in the game, but his lack of walks is usually a good formula for an NRFI bet.

Pick: -105

Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants – 9:45 ET

Alex Wood makes his return to the starting rotation today for the Giants, and he’s always been one of my favorite pitchers. His career has been tainted by injuries, but he’s been excellent when healthy. The Phillies have an 87 wRC+ against lefties and have struggled overall as an offense. Wood has always been great the first time through the order, with a 0.283 wOBA allowed in his career. While the walks have been elevated in his first few innings of 2023, he is an excellent pitcher when healthy, and he appears to be healthy for now.

The Phillies are sending Bailey Falter to the mound, and their left-hander has seemingly regressed from a promising 2022. However, the only real change appears to be a drop in Ks and some really poor LOB luck. His 62.5% LOB% is well below average and should come back to the middle, which will help him come back towards his ERA estimators. Falter has allowed a sub-.300 wOBA the first time through the order in his career. He is also facing a Giants offense with an 83 wRC+ against left-handers. This is a great matchup for Falter to get back on track.

Pick: -105

Check out our other best bets for Monday:


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