MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (5/2)

Despite a short Monday slate with several teams having an off day, today's games lack some of the premier pitching matchups that might be expected. It features tough matchups for aces like Sandy Alcantara (vs. Atlanta) and Zac Gallen (@ Texas). Combining this observation with the fact that scoring is up from previous years with the rule changes made it more difficult to target a game for the NRFI market today.

That said, I have one play this evening that’s a plus-money value that is too good to pass on.

Tuesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Season to date: 12-5 | +4.77 u

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox - 7:10 p.m. EST

The Twins have been a team that I've consistently been targeting in this market because their actual offensive performance just hasn't been as good as it's perceived. They're a bottom-half team in the league in terms of OPS and SLG and a bottom-10 team in BA and OBP. Though starter Michael Kopech has admittedly not been very good this year, he's been negatively affected by the new pace of play regulations. He is due for some positive regression to his metrics in his previous two years, where he posted career bests in xERA (2.83), K% (36.1%), xBA (0.185) and xWOBA (0.261). He'll also catch righty power bats Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton (both hitting well below 0.200) in their worse offensive splits, which will help him get through the opening frame without surrendering a run.

On the flip side, the White Sox offense has been absolutely atrocious. The Sox rank 21^st or worse in runs per game, OPS, BA, OBP and SLG. I don't foresee those numbers improving after this game either, as Minnesota will pitch a potential dark horse Cy Young candidate in Joe Ryan. Ryan has been dynamite for the Twins this season, pitching to the tune of a 5-0 record with a 2.81 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. His analytic metrics are phenomenal, ranking in the top 30^th percentile in xERA, xSLG, xBA, barrel %, K%, BB% and chase rate. He'll also catch the Sox, who have a reputation for mashing lefties, in their worse offensive splits.

I like Ryan to continue his stellar start to the season against a struggling White Sox offense. I also trust Kopech's track record and pedigree to navigate through the top of the Twins’ batting order to cash this bet for plus money.

Pick: NRFI (+102 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday:

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