MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (5/9)

I’m siding with a few pitchers with favorable matchups to fade some high-powered offenses in the NRFI market on this full 15-game Tuesday slate in the MLB.

Zach Eflin has been rejuvenated by the wizards on the Rays coaching staff. Grayson Rodriguez is the top prospect in the Orioles organization, and Shohei Ohtani and Framber Valdez have proved their worth as top-of-the-rotation starters for multiple seasons.

I like all of these pitchers to have clean first innings tonight, and I find value in their NRFI lines because of the early offensive success and star-studded names that some of these lineups possess.

2023 NRFI (14-6, +5.49 Units)

Tuesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

(Odds courtesy of Bet365)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles – 6:35 p.m. EST

Pitching matchup: Zach Eflin vs. Grayson Rodriguez

Zach Eflin has become another product of the assembly line: the Tampa Bay Rays pitching staff. They take relatively unknown or underwhelming commodities and turn them into top-of-the-rotation arms. Eflin has been stellar this season, posting a 4-0 record with a 2.25 ERA (a very respectable 3.06 xERA) and a 0.96 WHIP. He’s always had a very good command of the strike zone, but this year he’s walking an absurd 2.8% of the batters he faces. His chase rate on pitches outside of the strike zone has been as good as it gets, ranking in the 98^th percentile, and his average exit velo, xWOBA, xBA and K% all rank in the top 30^th percentile in baseball. The Orioles could not score a single run in yesterday’s affair, and I foresee them having similar struggles against Eflin in this matchup.

It’s always a scary proposition fading the Rays’ offense, but the No. 1 prospect for Baltimore, Grayson Rodriguez, is a pitcher with whom I’m willing to do it with. Rodriguez got knocked around a bit in a crazy high-scoring affair against the Royals in his last start (he still did not surrender a run in the 1^st inning, though), which snapped a streak of 11 scoreless innings. His stuff is absolutely there, ranking in the top 30^th percentile in K%, chase rate, fastball velo and extension off the mound. The Rays could only muster two runs against another righty in Kyle Gibson yesterday, so I like Rodriguez’s chances of success today. Additionally, the adjustments made to the left field fence in Baltimore have severely decreased the offensive park factors at Camden Yards, dropping HR and extra-base hit numbers well below league average compared to other stadiums.

Pick: NRFI (-115)

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Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels – 9:38 p.m. EST

Pitching matchup: Framber Valdez vs. Shohei Ohtani

The Astros will send Framber Valdez out to the mound tonight to go head-to-head with Shohei Ohtani of the Angels. Though Valdez’s stuff doesn’t necessarily jump off the page, he’s been one of the most consistent top-of-the-rotation arms in the American League over the past few seasons and is continuing that success in 2023, pitching to a 2.60 ERA so far. What Valdez does exceedingly well is generating ground balls, a statistic that he has led the MLB in (by a wide margin) over the past few seasons. Over 66% of the balls put in play against Valdez have been ground balls since 2021. That approach is paramount against the power the Angels possess at the top of their lineup. I also like the fact that he’ll be pitching against Ohtani in his worse hitting splits in a lefty-lefty matchup.

On the other hand, what more can be said about Ohtani? The dual-threat phenom seems to be having his best year on the mound since coming over to the MLB, pitching to the tune of a 4-0 record with a 2.54 ERA (a fantastic 2.92 xERA) and a minuscule 0.87 WHIP. His metrics are debatably the best of any pitcher in the league, ranking above the 90^th percentile in average exit velo, xBA, xSLG, whiff % and K%. His hard hit % and xWOBA both rank above the 80^th percentile, which is not too shabby either. Ohtani is a pitcher you can feel comfortable backing no matter the matchup, and I expect him to continue his dominance in this start against Houston tonight.

Pick: NRFI (-125)