MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks: Tuesday (9/10)
I've picked out an interesting trio of games for tonight's NRFI plays, backing a few brand-name pitchers who have dealt with injuries throughout that season and fading a few top-10 offenses. As such, the prices on these plays are much more tolerable than the usual -130 variety, which still gives them value in my opinion.
As I pointed out last week, the start of football season loosens these niche baseball markets up a little bit, giving us the chance to take advantage of them. Let's keep things rolling as we continue through the final month of the MLB regular season.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
2024 NRFI Record: 54-42 (+2.77 Units)
Houston Astros vs. Oakland A's
Starting Pitchers: Spencer Arrighetti vs. Osvaldo Bido
Spencer Arrighetti is a pitcher who has been sneakily good to back down the stretch, as his really poor early season has been skewing some of his late-season lines. Though he did not fare well in his most recent outing, he had surrendered just seven earned runs in his previous five starts in August - against potent offenses including the Phillies, Orioles and Red Sox. His xBA of 0.226 ranks above the 70th percentile and his 74th percentile whiff% and 81st percentile K% tells you his stuff is there.
Arrighetti faces an Oakland offense ranked in the bottom half of the league in OPS and slugging rate (SLG) while ranking 24th or worse in both batting average (AVG) and on-base percentage (OBP), though they have been hitting the ball better as of late. Their power numbers also take a dip against right-handed pitchers, which is a benefit to Arrighetti in this matchup.
Osvaldo Bido will get the start for the A's tonight - a second-year man making just his 10th start of the season. What we've seen from him this year has been electric, as his 3.41 ERA and 1.09 WHIP don't even tell the story of how good he has been. Bido's xERA of 2.76 and xBA of 0.185 are among the best in the game, ranking in the 94th and 98th percentiles, respectively.
His ability to avoid hard contact has been his calling card, as he ranks in the 94th percentile in barrel%, 98th percentile in average exit velocity and 100th percentile in hard-hit%. There's honestly not much to pick at when it comes to this Astros offense, I just find Bido to be extremely underrated when you look at his advanced numbers. I trust him to get the job done this evening.
Pick: NRFI (-102 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers: George Kirby vs. Yu Darvish
The Mariners make an appearance in these articles yet again, this time with right-hander George Kirby taking the mound. Kirby has been rock-solid this season, holding a 3.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, with some of the best command in the game as his walk rate of 3.0% puts him in the 99th percentile. His xERA of 3.54 outperforms his ERA and his chase rate sits in the 84th percentile with a hard-hit% in the 66th percentile.
All of his other advanced metrics sit right around league average, leaving no real holes in his game. Much like the Astros, the Padres have a very capable offense and I don't have many negative things to say about them. Kirby is a guy I've backed in this spot all year long. He's delivered far more times than not.
Yu Darvish will take the opposing mound tonight amid a somewhat disappointing season largely due to injury. Darvish's advanced numbers mirror Kirby's in a lot of ways, ranking right around league average in nearly all categories, but excelling in barrel% (80th percentile) and ranking above the 60th percentile in xBA, xERA and BB%.
Though he was not all that sharp in his first start back, I expect most of that was due to some rust. He draws a very favorable matchup against a horrible Mariners offense in this one. Even though the Mariners have brought their OBP up to 20th (yes, that's a noticeable increase), they still rank dead-last in AVG and 25th or worse in both OPS and SLG while leading the MLB in strikeouts.
Pick: NRFI (-111 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers: Zac Gallen vs. Nathan Eovaldi
Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen has also had a frustrating 2024 due to injuries, which has caused some of his counting stats to regress from years previous. His underlying numbers tell a different tale, though, as he ranks in the 75th percentile in barrel%, with a chase rate that sits just shy of the 70th percentile and a very high ground ball rate of 46.2%.
Gallen gets the benefit of pitching to a Rangers team still feeling the hangover effects from last year's World Series Championship, as they rank 19th or worse in home runs, AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG. They also have pretty even splits against both righties and lefties, so they have no distinct advantage against the righty Gallen this evening.
Nathan Eovaldi will get the ball for the Rangers tonight, having yet another incredible season at the top of their rotation. Eovaldi ranks above the 60th percentile in xERA, whiff% and K% while sitting above the 70th percentile in barrel% and coming in above the 80th percentile in chase%, BB% and ground ball rate.
He's also in phenomenal form right now, as his xwOBA dating back over his previous 50 batters faced is miles above league average. Though Arizona's offense statistically ranks among the best in the league, they are significantly worse hitters against right-handed pitching, which confers Eovaldi a massive advantage tonight.
Pick: NRFI (-135 @ Caesars Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: