MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks: Tuesday (9/17)
While most of my No Runs First Inning (NRFI) articles have centered around fading bad offenses, sometimes fading the best offenses with favorable pitching matchups offers too much value to pass up. That's exactly what we have tonight, as I'm choosing to go against two of the better offenses in the American League because I love how the opposing pitchers match up and we would normally catch NRFI lines on these guys much closer to the -150 range. It will feel uncomfortable, but these two games that bookend tonight's slate of MLB action are the best NRFI plays I identified on this Tuesday evening.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
2024 NRFI Record: 55-46 (+1.19 Units) | Odds via Bet365
Baltimore Orioles vs. San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers: Albert Suarez vs. Blake Snell
Albert Suarez has filled in admirably for an Orioles rotation that has been pretty ravished by injury this season, as he holds a respectable 3.39 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP. Though none of his underlying metrics necessarily jump off the page, he's been rock-solid all around. All of his pitches grade out pretty comfortably above league average. His calling card has been his ability to limit hard contact. He ranks in the 60th percentile in hard-hit% and in the top quartile of all pitchers in terms of barrel%. His command sits right around the 50th percentile, as does his average exit velocity. I think his repertoire plays very nicely against a Giants team that has struggled offensively for a majority of the season, as they rank 20th or worse in batting average (AVG), on-base percentage (OBP), OPS, slugging rate (SLG) and home runs.
Meanwhile, Blake Snell has proven himself again to be one of the best in the business after a slow start to his truncated season. His ERA is only a modest 3.52, but weighted down by some early performances and certainly not indicative of just how good he has been. Snell grades out above the 90th percentile in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, whiff%, K% and hard-hit% - pretty good, if you ask me. His chase rate and barrel% also grade out in the top quartile of pitchers and his ground ball rate comes in above league average as well. Simply put, he's among the best in nearly every single advanced metric, which is why I trust him against this high-powered Orioles lineup. The Orioles offense has swooned a bit down the stretch, ranking outside the top 10 in both AVG and OBP.
Pick: NRFI (-115)
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Bryan Woo vs. Luis Gil
Second-year righty Bryan Woo gets the ball for Seattle this evening, a pitcher I continue to find underrated in the market. Woo's 2.38 ERA and 0.82 WHIP are utterly ridiculous. His 98th percentile xERA of 2.57 lets you know those numbers are no fluke. Woo might have the best command of any pitcher right now, grading out in the 100th percentile in BB% and avoiding hard contact with the best of them, ranking above the 80th percentile in both hard-hit% and barrel%. We all know the star power at the top of the Yankees batting order, but I think Woo has the stuff to be effective within the strike zone and limit damage early. Woo has also already faced this Yankees squad once earlier in the season, striking out seven batters over six scoreless innings and allowing only two hits.
The Yankees counter by sending out American League Rookie of the Year candidate Luis Gil. Gil is almost the inverse pitcher to Woo, as his swing-and-miss stuff is very good, ranking in the top quartile in both whiff% and K%. His command suffers as a result, though, as his BB% is much higher than you would like it to be. Still, he ranks around league average in terms of average exit velocity and his hard-hit% sits in the 75th percentile, with a 90th percentile xBA of just 0.206. As long as Gil keeps the ball in the strike zone, he should dominate a Mariners offense that leads the league in strikeouts and ranks dead-last in AVG while ranking 24th or worse in OPS and SLG.
Pick: NRFI (-135)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: