MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks: Tuesday (9/24)
With playoff baseball just around the corner, teams are making their final push to secure a spot in the postseason. Today's No Runs First Inning (NRFI) article features four teams across two games, all of which are still mathematically alive for a playoff berth. In case you've missed it due to the start of football season, the Detroit Tigers are currently tied with the Royals for the final two American League Wild card spots, both of which have a one-game advantage on the Twins and a 1.5-game advantage on the Mariners.
Things are a little bit less chaotic in the National League, though tonight kicks off a massive National League East series between the Mets (0.5 games up on the last Wild Card spot) and the Braves (1.5 games back of the last Ward Card spot). I know football is king to most, but this is the most fun time of year to be a baseball fan. I'm going to enjoy the playoff race and hopefully cash some more NRFI tickets along the way.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning Picks
2024 NRFI Record: 58-48 (+1.41 Units)
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal vs. Ryan Pepiot
There's no way I'm passing up on potentially the last time to back Tarik Skubal in an NRFI spot this season. Though Emmanuel Clase has put together a pretty nice case, it's almost all but a formality Skubal will bring home the American League Cy Young award. Skubal has been incredible this year, managing to stay healthy and posting a 2.48 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP. His advanced numbers are insane as well, as he grades out above the 70th percentile in ground ball%, average exit velocity and chase%, above the 80th percentile in hard-hit% and xBA and above the 90th percentile in whiff%, K%, BB% and xERA. Skubal faces off against a bottom-10 Rays lineup that has finally regressed after overachieving in previous years, as they rank 23rd or worse in home runs, batting average (AVG), on-base percentage (OBP), OPS and slugging rate (SLG).
The Rays will send out third-year right-hander Ryan Pepiot, who has been pretty good in his own right. Pepiot's 3.64 ERA is reflective of his 63rd percentile xERA of 3.70, while his xERA of 0.222 puts him just shy of the 80th percentile. His K% sits in the 74th percentile, with an 84th percentile whiff% and 60th percentile hard-hit%. Pepiot also has a pretty favorable matchup tonight against a bottom-10 Tigers offense, which ranks 22nd or worse in home runs, AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG.
Pick: NRFI (-148 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Starting Pitchers: Spencer Schwellenbach vs. Luis Severino
First-year starter Spencer Schwellenbach has been a much-needed revelation for this injury-riddled Braves pitching staff. He will get the ball tonight to begin this pivotal National League East series. Schwellenbach holds a 1.10 WHIP this year, with a 73rd percentile xERA of 3.45 which bests his actual ERA of 3.61. Schwellenbach has some great advanced metrics, grading out above the 70th percentile in average exit velocity, whiff% and K%, and ranking above the 87th percentile in barrel%, BB% and chase rate. While the Mets offense has performed at a top-10 clip in most categories, Schwellenbach will have a decisive splits advantage in this matchup, as the Mets’ numbers take a noticeable dip against righties.
The veteran right-hander Luis Severino will toe the slab for the Mets, who is having a great season after moving across town from the Bronx. Severino has a very solid 3.79 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, largely due to his ability to avoid hard contact. Severino ranks in the 75th percentile in hard-hit% and comes in above the 80th percentile in both barrel% and average exit velocity. He also ranks in the 71st percentile in ground ball rate at 46%, so even if batters are squaring him up, they're hitting it into the ground at a very high rate. The Braves lineup Severino will face is not the same lineup they've had in previous years, as injuries have taken their toll on this team. They're middling, at best, ranking between 10-20 in nearly all categories. Their numbers also drop against right-handers, which is another advantage for Severino tonight.
Pick: NRFI (-110 @ DraftKings Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: