MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks: Tuesday (Diamondbacks vs. Phillies)
The Championship Series delivered on both sides of the bracket to make up for the lack of drama early on in the playoffs, with both series reaching a Game 7. Because of the way the schedule and matchups broke down, neither team will have a decisive starting pitching matchup, with Brandon Pfaadt taking the mound for the Diamonbacks against Ranger Suarez of the Phillies. There’s no doubt that each pitcher will have a short leash, with managers looking to utilize bullpen arms (and potentially starting pitchers) in their most advantageous matchups. That being said, both pitchers combined to pitch 11 innings without allowing a single ER when they matched up last Thursday, so this could be more of a pitching duel than some people realize. Let’s take a look at this game from a NRFI perspective.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks – NRFI (-110 @ DraftKings)
Ranger Suarez was a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm for the Phillies, posting a 4.18 ERA with some pretty encouraging underlying metrics. His best attribute was his ability to avoid hard contact, ranking above the 70th percentile in both hard-hit% and average exit velo, with a barrel rate of 7.5% that was comfortably better than league average. His ground ball rate of 48.8% fell just shy of the 80th percentile, which means that even if his pitches were getting hit hard, he was able to keep it out of the air for the most part. He has been absolutely phenomenal this postseason, combining to pitch 14 innings in 3 games started, only allowing 1ER with a WHIP of 0.64 with a K/BB ratio of 13/2. He’ll have a big time splits advantage in this game as well, as the Diamondbacks have fared much worse both for average and for power against LHP this postseason. The Phillies may only ask Suarez to get 9 outs in this ballgame, and I expect him to continue his postseason dominance to get those outs.
Rookie RHP Brandon Pfaadt did not exactly have the warmest welcome to the big leagues this year, holding a 5.72 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP with pretty poor underlying metrics to argue against the poor results. Pfaadt has made the most out of his extended postseason opportunities, though, pitching brilliantly against the Dodgers and these very same Phillies in his last two starts. In those starts, he has combined to pitch 10 innings with 0 ER allowed and a K/BB ratio of 9:0. The Phillies had nearly identical offensive splits against RHP and LHP during the regular season, but they have had less success against righties in the playoffs, partially due to Pfaadt’s dominance against them in his last start. Like Suarez, I don’t necessarily expect Pfaadt to be out there for more than 3-4 innings, so he’ll be able to empty the tank early. I like the fact that he’s coming into this game with confidence from his postseason success, and he obviously already has the blueprint on how to get these tough Phillies hitters out. He just needs to execute it once again.
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