MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks: Tuesday (Guardians vs. Yankees)
Things have been going very well in the No Runs First Inning (NRFI) market lately, cashing our first two postseason plays after hitting on six consecutive plays to end the regular season. We're stuck with just one game this evening between the Yankees and Guardians, though this Game 2 sets up for a better pitching matchup than we saw in Game 1 in which the NRFI also cashed. Because of how the schedule and pitching matchups lined up, I think each staff's ace will be facing off tonight, with Gerrit Cole taking on Tanner Bibee.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Pick
2024 NRFI Record: 63-48 (+4.68 Units) | Odds vis FanDuel Sportsbook
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
Starting Pitchers: Gerrit Cole vs. Tanner Bibee
Gerrit Cole missed most of the early part of the season recovering from injury after his 2023 Cy Young campaign. He has rebounded to a 3.41 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Though those numbers and his advanced analytics indicate a step down in performance, his numbers took a hit from some brutally bad starts when he first returned from injury. He gave up 21 earned runs in seven starts before the end of July, seeing his ERA tick up to 5.09. A majority of that damage came in three starts against the Mets and Red Sox.
Since then, if you remove another poor seven-earned run performance against the Red Sox, Cole allowed just eight earned runs in his final nine regular season starts. He's also coming off of an outstanding outing in their series-clinching win against the Royals, where he allowed just one earned run over seven innings without walking a batter. While the Guardians certainly possess threats with guys like Steven Kwan, Lane Thomas, Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor, as a whole, they undoubtedly represent the softest offensive lineup left in the playoffs. They ranked in the bottom half of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, OPS and slugging rate. Cole also fared very well against Cleveland in his only start against them this season, tossing six shutout innings and allowing only a single hit.
Tanner Bibee provided some much-needed stability in the Guardians’ rotation this season, where he posted very similar numbers to Cole with a 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 31 starts. Bibee had great strikeout to walk numbers, ranking in the 74th percentile in K% and 78th percentile in BB%. He also did a nice job of avoiding hard contact, ranking above the 60th percentile in average exit velocity, barrel% and hard-hit%.
He has also performed well in these playoffs over two starts, allowing just two earned runs and ranking up nine strikeouts over 8.2 innings. While the power of the Yankees certainly cannot be understated, they would rank eighth of all playoff teams in terms of batting average this postseason. It's all about avoiding the big blow, and Bibee has displayed the ability to do that over the majority of the season. I think we see a very low-scoring affair this evening, with both pitchers escaping the opening frame unscathed.
Pick: NRFI (-122)
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