MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks: Yankees vs. Dodgers (Friday)
For the first time since 1981 and the 12th time overall, the two most historical franchises in baseball history will meet on the biggest stage, with the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees facing off in the 2024 World Series. Whether you're watching because you're a fan of either team, a baseball fan in general, a bettor looking to cash tickets or hate watching these teams out of spite, this series will almost certainly be one of the best in recent memory.
Each roster is loaded with the star power of current and former MVPs and Cy Young winners, with batters up and down each lineup that have the potential to hit the ball 400+ feet. I'll be writing up the case to play the No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks for games in this series. Full disclosure, I will not be playing them myself. Instead, I'll be looking toward sides, props and full game totals as each lineup has three guys at the top that can end your NRFI play in one swing, no matter who is pitching.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Gerrit Cole
It's been quite the ride for Dodgers right-hander Jack Flaherty this season, starting his season in Detroit coming off four straight years of 4.89+ xERA seasons and ending up in Los Angeles starting Game 1 of the World Series. Flaherty emerged as one of the top strikeout pitchers in the MLB this season, ranking above the 90th percentile in both K% and whiff% while demonstrating excellent control of the strike zone with a 5.9% walk rate.
He also did a nice job of avoiding hard contact, with a hard-hit% and chase% that both ranked over the 70th percentile and an average exit velocity that put him over the 60th percentile. All of that culminated in a fantastic ERA of 3.17 and WHIP of 1.07, with a 70th percentile xERA that implies those numbers aren't flukey. Flaherty's postseason performance has been a bit of a roller coaster ride, giving up eight earned runs to the Mets in just three innings right after pitching seven scoreless innings against a dynamite Padres offense and only allowing two hits.
The Yankees will hand the ball to ace Gerrit Cole in hopes of stealing Game 1 on the road. While Cole's numbers still look pretty good - a 3.41 ERA and 1.13 WHIP - they're negatively skewed from some really brutal early season performances against the Red Sox and Mets. Cole allowed 23 earned runs in 18.1 innings in four games against those two teams, including three starts that were pretty recent to his return from injury.
For comparison, he allowed just 13 earned runs in his other 13 starts combined, including just two earned runs in September and eight since the end of July. We also still haven't seen him at his best this postseason - he's been good enough to deliver wins for the Yankees, but he hasn't yet been as dominant as he's capable of. I think there's a great chance we see that on the big stage tonight.
There's not much use trying to poke holes in either team's offense, as they have both ranked in the top five in most offensive statistical categories for the entire season. Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge will almost certainly be their league's MVP representatives, and each lineup is stacked with even more former MVPs. Both teams will also be in their advantageous hitting splits, as both lineups have more success against right-handed pitching. If you're taking this NRFI, you're taking it solely because you believe in the pitchers to have nasty stuff and get tough outs, there's no "fading" either offense at this point.
Pick: NRFI (-113)