Top MLB No Runs First Inning Odds (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (9/5)
On these small slates, it may be difficult to find bets we truly love. However, today it looks like there may be a few really interesting bets. One bet I like that I can’t find odds for today is NRFI for the early Orioles/Blue Jays game. If the number is reasonable at all, I would take the bet.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres – 6:40 p.m. ET
Amazingly, Arizona has actually been one of the best offenses in the league in the last 30 days, finding themselves in the top five in runs scored. The Padres, on the flip side, have been more of a middle-of-the-road offense despite the overall name value of their offense. Blake Snell has an ERA under 2.00 in the first time through the order, allowing a .235 wOBA. I am confident he will be able to limit the Diamondbacks’ offense in the first inning.
It appears Ryne Nelson will be making his MLB debut for the DBacks, and I always like to bet on pitchers MLB hitters have not seen before, especially when facing them for the first time. His AAA numbers do not inspire much confidence. He had over three walks per nine innings and was allowing over one and a half homers per game. The K numbers were below average as well, but he did pitch in an extreme hitters park, and I believe that he has enough there to get away with it long enough to get past the big bats in the first inning.
Pick: NRFI -115
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros – 7:10 pm ET
Martin Perez has been one of the best stories in all of baseball this season. The Rangers left-hander has a sub-3.00 ERA for the first time in his career and is only under four for the second time ever going all the pack to 2013 when he last did that. He has been limiting the long ball and 0.248 wOBA in his first time through the order. The Astros offense is very right-handed heavy early in the lineup and has previously succeeded against Perez earlier in the season. I believe that Perez can limit the damage enough early to keep the Astros off the board.
On the other side, we have a pitcher making his first career start in Hunter Brown. In 100 innings in AAA this season, he has a K/9 over 11, and despite a slightly elevated walk rate, he has been able to limit the damage by not allowing homers. He has a GB% over 50% and seems like he has the makings of yet another above-average Astros starter. While the Texas lineup has been better lately, I will take a chance that they struggle the first time through the order against a pitcher they have never seen before.
Pick: NRFI -125
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