Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (9/20)
Yesterday we went one for two in our NRFI bet, with a leadoff homer by Jose Altuve being the only reason we lost. Today we have a large slate of games to choose from, including a doubleheader between the Dbacks and Dodgers. Let’s dive into my favorite plays of the day.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds – 6:40 ET
This is a matchup between two young pitchers who look like they just might have what it takes to become front-of-the-rotation arms. For the Reds, Nick Lodolo will take the mound. Lodolo has been excellent with a 30% K-rate and back-to-back starts with 11 strikeouts. Walks have been a slight issue for the young lefty, but he has actually done a decent job keeping the ball in the yard. Any game that takes place in Cincy is a risk for a home run barrage, but I think Lodolo is talented enough to make it, so that is not a concern for us in the first inning.
For Boston, Brayan Bello takes the mound. Bello’s numbers don’t look quite as good as Lodolo’s, but his issue has mostly been tied to walks. He has a double-digit walk rate, but he only has one walk in two of his last three starts. He has still yet to allow a homer, although his BABIP has been quite high. The Reds still have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball, and I believe they will have a hard time taking advantage of Bello’s shortcomings. Despite the ballpark, this could be a low-scoring affair.
Pick: NRFI -120
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers – 8:10 PM
This is a matchup of left-handers in Patrick Sandoval and rookie Cole Ragans. Sandoval has had what can only be described as a weird season. The numbers are excellent in all facets except for the walk rate. He truly seems to be becoming a second ace for this Angels’ team. However, with all of the team’s struggles, his wins have not been there, which has hidden some of the success. He faces the Rangers today, who has actually been above average against left-handers in 2022. They are either in wRC+ against lefties. However, their walk rate has been middle of the road, and I believe that this may allow Sandoval to overcome his own shortcomings.
For the Rangers, Cole Ragans gets the start. Ragans has been downright awful in his brief debut. He has a well below-average K-rate and an extremely elevated walk rate. Not to mention he is also allowing more homers than average, almost two per nine innings. He is facing an Angels lineup with two of the best hitters in baseball in the top 3. So why are we trusting him for our NRFI bets? Well, the answer is quite simple, the Angels have a wRC+ of 88 against lefties, good for sixth worst in baseball. This is strictly a gamble on platoon splits and that Ragans can hold off the Angels long enough to have a clean first inning. Maybe he will walk Trout and Ohtani to help the cause.
Pick: NRFI -120
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