Top MLB No Runs First Inning Odds (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (9/6)
In my first go at this piece yesterday, we did well with both our NRFI bets hitting. Today we have a full slate of games again to choose from. Let’s dive into my favorite bets for today’s games.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles – 7:05 ET
On paper, these pitchers do not look like two players we would want to target for an NRFI bet, especially against two talented offenses like the Blue Jays and Orioles. However, Kyle Bradish has been on an elite run lately, and his full-season line is blocking some changes. He has recently changed his pitch mix, throwing his cutter less, his slider more, and basically abandoning the changeup. While it has not changed his underlying results (similar K-BB% with no real change in either), his BABIP has normalized, and success has followed. The Blue Jays have an elite offense but are RH-heavy early, which should help with the new Camden Yards set-up.
On the other end of the matchup is Mitch White. White has gotten off to a rough start for the Blue Jays, but his FIP is actually similar to what he was doing for LA. He looks to have the skills of a high 3 ERA pitcher with below-average K and BB rates. However, his biggest undoing has been poor luck with LOB and BABIP. Baltimore is a FB-heavy offense which should help with the BABIP issues somewhat. I think White can hold on long enough to keep Baltimore off the board in the first.
Pick: NRFI -105
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals 8:10 ET
There are a few different pieces to why I like this bet. First, the game will be played in Kansas City, a notoriously pitcher-friendly ballpark. Secondly, like all NRFI bets, the pitchers are interesting enough to make it worthy. For the Royals, Kris Bubic will be taking the mound. Bubic has been a bit of a disappointment thus far with an ERA over five. The issues have been numerous, but mostly, the problem has been homers and not enough Ks to make up for those homers. However, he has one thing going for him, the hand he throws with. The Guardians offense has the second lowest wRC+ in baseball against lefties, with the lowest ISO within the same split. Plain and simple, they struggle against lefties. We are betting that this can hold off long enough for Bubic to get a clean inning.
Shane Bieber takes the ball on the other side, and while he does not look the same as he did in his CY Young season, he still has an ERA around 3. Despite all of their call-ups and exciting young stars, the Royals offense is still below average. The top third of the order is much better than the bottom, but Bieber is talented enough that I expect him to cruise through the first inning easily.
Pick: NRFI -130
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