Top MLB No Runs First Inning Odds (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (9/7)
Yesterday we once again went two for two in our NRFI bets. This Wednesday, let’s see if we can keep up the hot streak and make it three days in a row.
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San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers 4:10 ET
I will preface this by saying that I do not love betting against the top third of the Dodgers offense to score a run. Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Freddie Freeman are three of the best hitters in baseball, and assuming that any pitcher can keep them off the board is usually a losing bet. However, Alex Cobb has had an excellent season thus far, and by many measures, it may even be unlucky. He has extreme ground ball rates, which limit the potential for a home run and should hopefully allow him to avoid many baserunners.
On the other side of the coin, we have Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw has the magic combination of above-average K rates paired with extremely low walk rates. That is the recipe for a dominant pitcher, and that is just what Kershaw has been his entire career. The Giants, despite their windfall of success last season, have been a below-average offense in 2022 and across the last month. However, they are above average against LHP as their mixed and matched platoons have been successful. Kershaw is a special kind of pitcher where despite those numbers, I don’t think it matters, and he should be able to easily move through the lineup.
Pick: NRFI -120
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees 3:05 ET
One theme in my short time writing this article is that I like to bet on pitchers who are making their debut. Thus far, it has worked out well, and we are going back to the well again today. Louie Varland is making his MLB debut against the Yankees. His MiLB numbers show a pitcher with elite K rates and around 2.5-3 walks per nine. He is a flyball pitcher, which gives me some concern against the Yankees but outside of Aaron Judge, there’s not too much I am worried about with the top of that lineup.
Domingo German has quietly been one of the best pitchers on the Yankees and possibly even in the AL over the last month or so. After a rough beginning to his 2022, German has been a stabling force in the Yankee rotation. The Ks are well below average, but he has a solid walk rate which has helped to keep him from allowing a ton of damage. The Twins’ offense is solid up top, but without Buxton and Polanco, there aren’t as many hitters that strike fear in me. I am confident that German can do enough to get through the early innings without allowing any runs.
Pick: NRFI -120
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