MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers: Friday (6/30)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jun 30, 2023

A solid start to our new strategy yesterday!! We didnâ€™t take down our parlay, but going 3-1 and watching several of the games fall apart after the 5th inning was exactly what we were looking for. Staying in that first 5 inning lane helps us limit that randomness to bullpens. Remember, we will be posting our ML record from earlier in the season, but we are focusing on smaller parlays and the lottery ticket parlays from here on out. Letâ€™s continue the momentum and dive into todayâ€™s slate!!!

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Record:

ML: 21-19 (-7.8 units)
Parlay: 2-7 (-2.13 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-8 (-2.25 units)
Overall: -12.18 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at Starting Pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will be ignoring arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in pitchers that are overlooked or overrated. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed. Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.

Glossary:

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more information about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary

Friday's Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

The rankings for each category are based on the 164 Starting Pitchers who have at least 30 innings pitched this season. The database will grow as the season goes and we will adjust accordingly. Let's dive in!

San Diego Padres (-135) @ Cincinnati Reds (+104): First 5 innings

Seth Lugo (SD)

52nd in FIP
72nd in ERA
58th in K-BB%
50th in LOB%
41st in GB%
86th in HR/FB%
51.2 innings pitched

Graham Ashcraft (CIN)

140th in FIP
158th in ERA
149th in K-BB%
155th in LOB%
30th in GB%
146th in HR/FB%
69 innings pitched

As you can see, Ashcraft is pretty horrendous in every advanced statistic that isnâ€™t GB%. To make matters worse, San Diego is 7th vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Lugo isnâ€™t an ace, but he should be able to limit Cincinnati the first couple of times through the lineup. Ashcraft, on the other hand, has the potential to get lit up early and often.

Bet: San Diego (-135) first 5 innings can be played with confidence.

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays: Under 4.5 runs (+116) First 5 innings

James Paxton (BOS)

29th in FIP
31st in ERA
4th in K-BB%
34th in LOB%
141st in GB%
106th in HR/FB%
42.1 innings pitched

Jose Berrios (TOR)

62nd in FIP
49th in ERA
72nd in K-BB%
61st in LOB%
45th in GB%
61st in HR/FB%
95 innings pitched

We have pitchers with clear identities, Paxton is an elite K-BB% pitcher, and Berrios is a balanced all-around pitcher. This play is more geared toward the offenses who are struggling of late. Boston is 23rd vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month, and Toronto is 22nd vs. LHP in wRC+ over the last month. Both of these pitchers are formidable and can stifle these lineups through 5 innings.

Bet: Under 4.5 runs (+116) First 5 innings

Detroit Tigers (-140) @ Colorado Rockies (+108): First 5 innings

Michael Lorenzen (DET)

92nd in FIP
70th in ERA
97th in K-BB%
82nd in LOB%
85th in GB%
91st in HR/FB%
77 innings pitched

Austin Gomber (COL)

159th in FIP
156th in ERA
148th in K-BB%
134th in LOB%
71st in GB%
155th in HR/FB%
77 innings pitched

As we have written before, Gomber is easily a bottom 5 starting pitcher in the league. He is abysmal in every single category. He will also face a Detroit lineup that is 8th vs. LHP in wrC+ over the last month. Lorenzen isnâ€™t a premier option, but he should be serviceable against a lineup that is 27th vs. RHP in wrC+ over the last month. Detroit first 5 innings is the play.

Bet: Detroit (-140) First 5 innings is my favorite play of the day.

Washington Nationals (+134) @ Philadephia Phillies (-176): First 5 innings

Josiah Gray (WAS)

106th in FIP
41st in ERA
127th in K-BB%
11th in LOB%
74th in GB%
81st in HR/FB%
89.1 innings pitched

Philadelphiaâ€™s starter doesnâ€™t have enough innings to qualify for an advanced statistic profile, but this play is geared toward the difference in offenses. Washington is 28th vs. LHP in wRC+ (66) in the last month. To put that in perspective, an average wRC+ score is 100, and Washington is 34 percent worse than the league average vs. LHP. The fact they are also trotting out Gray, who has not earned his ERA, we are going with the Phillies.

Bet: Philadelphia (-176) First 5 innings

The Bets

ML Parlay

San Diego Padres First 5 innings (-135)
Boston/Toronto under 4.5 runs First 5 innings (+116)
Detroit Tigers First 5 innings (-140)
Philadephia Phillies First 5 innings (-176)

We are going to risk 1 unit on this play.

Parlay odds: +920 for 1 unit.

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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