MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Pitchers: Friday (7/14)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jul 14, 2023

Welcome back from a week of rest for the All-Star break!! Letâ€™s see if we can start the second half of the season off right. Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 inning bets. Letâ€™s dive in!!!

Record

Parlay: 5-13 (- .75 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-11 (-3.75 units)

Overall: -4.50 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at starting pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will ignore arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in overlooked or overrated pitchers. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcherâ€™s ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed.

Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to todayâ€™s slate.

Glossary:

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcherâ€™s value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.

Fridayâ€™s Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 Inning plays. This helps us remove the randomness of bullpens. Our database has 171 starting pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched.

Tampa Bay Rays (-280) @ Kansas City Royals (+215) First 5 innings

Tyler Glasnow (TBR)

40th in FIP
75th in ERA
3rd in K-BB%
54th in LOB%
60th in GB%
162nd in HR/FB%
41.2 innings pitched

Kansas Cityâ€™s pitcher does not meet the innings requirements for an advanced statistic profile. Glasnow, on the other hand is elite in K-BB% and should have his way with a Royals lineup that is 29th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. He should easily navigate this porous lineup and have a solid outing.

Bet: Tampa Bay Rays (-280) First 5 innings

Washington Nationals (+148) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-188) First 5 innings

Trevor Williams (WAS)

142nd in FIP
95th in ERA
131st in K-BB%
64th in LOB%
105th in GB%
121st in HR/FB%
91 innings pitched

Miles Mikolas (STL)

58th in FIP
80th in ERA
112th in K-BB%
91st in LOB%
123rd in GB%
15th in HR/FB%
112.2 innings pitched

Williams is having a pretty dismal year. You can see he doesnâ€™t rank above 60th in any category. Tonight will not be any better as he faces off against a Cardinals lineup that this is 2nd vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Do not let their record fool you, they are absolutely raking from both sides of the plate. Mikolas gets an average Nationals lineup that is 18th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month.

Bet: Cardinals (-188) First 5 innings is my favorite play of the day.

Chicago White Sox (+220) @ Atlanta Braves (-290)

Michael Kopech (CHW)

149th in FIP
74th in ERA
98th in K-BB%
7th in LOB%
134th in GB%
132nd in HR/FB%
86 innings pitched

Charlie Morton (ATL)

54th in FIP
46th in ERA
65th in K-BB%
30th in LOB%
32nd in GB%
71st in HR/FB%
97 innings pitched

This angle is quite simple. Kopech is having a horrendous year and is facing an Atlanta lineup that hitting at a historic level. The Braves are 1st vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Morton has been serviceable and will face a White Sox lineup struggling of late, 22nd vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month.

Bet: Atlanta (-290) First 5 innings

Houston Astros (+150) @ Los Angeles Angels (-190)

JP France (HOU)

111th in FIP
34th in ERA
125th in K-BB%
12th in LOB%
38th in GB%
108th in HR/FB%
66.1 innings pitched

Shohei Ohtani (LAA)

69th in FIP
41st in ERA
16th in K-BB%
25th in LOB%
61st in GB%
145th in HR/FB%
100.1 innings pitched

Franceâ€™s ERA is extremely misleading; he is 111th in FIP this year. Heâ€™s below-average in K-BB% and HR/FB%, not a great combination to have for any pitcher. He will face off against an Angels lineup that is 5th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Ohtani has produced an elite-level K-BB% but has struggled in HR/FB%. If he can limit home runs in this matchup, he should get plenty of run support.

Bet: Angels (-190) First 5 innings

The Bets

ML Parlay

Tampa Bay (-280) First 5 innings
St. Louis (-188) First 5 innings
Atlanta (-290) First 5 innings
Los Angeles Angels (-190) First 5 innings

Parlay Odds: +326 for 1.5 units.

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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