MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers: Monday (6/26)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jun 26, 2023

We had close to a break-even day and just missed out on turning some profit. There is a concise slate with only six games today, but we can still try to extract some value and start the week off in the win column. Letâ€™s dive in!

Record:

ML: 14-14 (-5.86 units)
Parlay: 1-4 (-1.07 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-6 (1.75 units)
Overall: -8.68 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at Starting Pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will be ignoring arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in pitchers that are overlooked or overrated. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed. Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.

Glossary:

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more information about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary

Mondayâ€™s Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

The rankings for each category are based on the 163 Starting Pitchers who have at least 30 innings pitched this season. The database will grow as the season goes and we will adjust accordingly. Let's dive in!

Milwaukee Brewers (+152) @ New York Mets (-180)

Colin Rea (MIL)

105th in FIP
110th in ERA
92nd in K-BB%
109th in LOB%
39th in GB%
113th in HR/FB%
62 innings pitched

Justin Verlander (NYM)

87th in FIP
102nd in ERA
79th in K-BB%
105th in LOB%
95th in GB%
87th in HR/FB%
52 innings pitched

Neither of these pitchers is spectacular. Verlander is essentially average at this point in his career. The difference between the two teams is offensive. Milwaukee ranks 25th in wRC+ vs RHP, while the Mets rank 12th in wRC+ vs RHP. We will be backing Verlander and the New York Mets.

Bet: New York Mets (-180) is the play.

Minnesota Twins (+176) @ Atlanta Braves (-210)

Sonny Gray (MIN)

5th in FIP
8th in ERA
69th in K-BB%
26th in LOB%
29th in GB%
3rd in HR/FB%
81 innings pitched

Spencer Strider (ATL)

15th in FIP
65th in ERA
2nd in K-BB%
79th in LOB%
155th in GB%
105th in HR/FB%
84.2 innings pitched

We have two aces facing off in what should be the best pitching matchup of the day. They are polar opposites though. Spencer Strider is elite in K-BB%, while bottom 5 in forcing groundballs. Sonny Gray is average in K-BB%, but superb in limiting home runs. Both offenses are top-level in wRC+ vs RHP, with Atlanta ranking 3rd and Minnesota at 10th. The main difference, however, is that Minnesota is dead last in K% vs RHP at 27.1%, which plays right into Striderâ€™s greatest strength.

Bet: Atlanta Braves (-210) can be played with confidence.

Chicago White Sox (+116) @ Los Angeles Angels (-134)

Dylan Cease (CHW)

65th in FIP
84th in ERA
54th in K-BB%
97th in LOB%
105th in GB%
66th in HR/FB%
85.1 innings pitched

Reid Detmers (LAA)

22nd in FIP
73rd in ERA
33rd in K-BB%
111th in LOB%
141st in GB%
29th in HR/FB%

Detmers is underrated and infinitely better than his ERA indicates. He is a fly ball pitcher, who also is above average in K-BB%. In contrast, Cease is an average pitcher, who doesnâ€™t do anything at a remarkable level. From an offensive standpoint, the Angels are 4th in wRC+ vs RHP and the White Sox are 21st in wRC+ vs LHP.

Bet: Angels (-134) is my favorite bet of the day.

Washington Nationals (+215) @ Seattle Mariners (-260)

Trevor Williams (WAS)

127th in FIP
81st in ERA
115th in K-BB%
69th in LOB%
94th in GB%
107th in HR/FB%
76 innings pitched

Luis Castillo (SEA)

37th in FIP
18th in ERA
22nd in K-BB%
32nd in LOB%
98th in GB%
72nd in HR/FB%
87.1 innings pitched

Trevor Williamsâ€™ ERA does not paint the whole picture of his season. He has one of the biggest gaps in ERA and FIP in the league. Luis Castillo, on the other hand, is a borderline ace. He ranks top 40 in FIP, K-BB%, and LOB%. Both offenses are below average in wRC+ vs RHP, with Washington at 26th and Seattle in 17th.

Bet: Seattle (-260) can be played with confidence.

The Bets

ML Parlay

Los Angeles Angels (-134)
New York Mets (-180)
Atlanta Braves (-210)
Seattle Mariners (-260)

This gives us two aces and two offenses who are in good matchups.

Parlay odds: +438

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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