MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Pitchers: Monday (7/17)
Post-All-Star break has not been too kind to us. No need to worry, though. Baseball offers us a slate every day and a new chance at finding value. We are going to continue to focus on First 5 inning plays. Let’s see if we can get a ticket to the window today!!!
Record
Parlay: 5-15 (- 4.25 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-11 (-3.75 units)
Overall: -8.00 units
Welcome to a new daily article where we look at starting pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will ignore arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in overlooked or overrated pitchers. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed.
Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.
Glossary:
K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.
For more about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.
Monday's Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers
Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 Inning plays. This helps us remove the randomness of bullpens. Our database has 173 starting pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched.
New York Yankees (+142) @ Los Angeles Angels (+100) over 4.5 runs First 5 innings (SGP)
Luis Severino (NYY)
- 167th in FIP
- 170th in ERA
- 141st in K-BB%
- 163rd in LOB%
- 116th in GB%
- 156th in HR/FB%
- 42.2 innings pitched
Griffin Canning (LAA)
- 130th in FIP
- 105th in ERA
- 73rd in K-BB%
- 61st in LOB%
- 45th in GB%
- 159th in HR/FB%
- 74 innings pitched
We have two of the most porous starting pitchers in the league facing off today. Canning is having a better season only by comparison because his numbers are still abysmal. They will face two lineups on two completely different trajectories. The Yankees are 26th vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month, and the Angels are 3rd vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. We are going to target the total and the Angels in this Same Game Parlay.
Bet: Angels (+100) and over 4.5 total runs First 5 innings (Same Game Parlay)
Parlay odds: +212 for 1.5 units.
Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
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