MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Pitchers: Monday (7/24)
Unfortunately, we could not get to the window last night, and our streak continues. That’s OK, though, because today, we have a couple of g ames highlighting some extreme value. Let’s see if we can take advantage of them. Let’s dive in.
Record:
Parlay: 5-20 (-9.30 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-12 (-5.00 units)
Overall: -14.30 units
Welcome to a new daily article where we look at starting pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will ignore arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in overlooked or overrated pitchers. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed.
Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.
Glossary
K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.
For more about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.
Monday's Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers
Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 Inning plays. This helps us remove the randomness of bullpens. Our database has 177 starting pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kansas City Royals (+144) @ Cleveland Guardians (-182) First 5 innings
- 23rd in FIP
- 29th in ERA
- 72nd in K-BB%
- 22nd in LOB%
- 60th in GB%
- 28th in HR/FB%
- 67.1 innings pitched
The Royals’ starting pitcher did not meet the innings requirement for an advanced statistic profile. The Royals have a sneaky offense coming into this matchup. The Royals rank fourth vs. LHP in wRC+ over the last month. They offer extreme value at +144.
Bet: Royals (+144) First 5 innings
Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins over 4.5 runs (+116) First 5 innings
- 61st in FIP
- 18th in ERA
- 20th in K-BB%
- 29th in LOB%
- 89th in GB%
- 117th in HR/FB%
- 118.1 innings pitched
- 17th in FIP
- 127th in ERA
- 19th in K-BB%
- 168th in LOB%
- 146th in GB%
- 34th in HR/FB%
- 42.1 innings pitched
We have two solid pitchers here who have opposite-looking profiles. Luis Castillo’s ERA is misleading to his actual FIP, and Kenta Maeda has been extremely unlucky regarding his ERA. Today, I believe we will get a mix of both. Both pitchers face troubling matchups. The Mariners rank ninth vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month, and the Twins rank seventh vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month.
Bet: over 4.5 runs (+116) First 5 innings
The Bets
ML Parlay
Parlay odds: +427 for 1.5 units
Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- TBT Basketball Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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