MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Pitchers: Saturday (7/22)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jul 22, 2023

We finally got to the window last night. It wasnâ€™t a huge win but a step in the right direction. Today we have a slate with an enormous amount of potential. Letâ€™s see if we can start ourselves on a winning streak. Letâ€™s dive in!!!

Parlay: 5-18 (-5.89 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-11 (-3.75 units)

Overall: -9.64 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at starting pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will ignore arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in overlooked or overrated pitchers. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed.

Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.

Glossary

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.

Saturday's Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 Inning plays. This helps us remove the randomness of bullpens. Our database has 176 starting pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched.

Kansas City Royals (+200) @ New York Yankees (-260) First 5 innings

Brady Singer (KC)

90th in FIP
144th in ERA
127th in K-BB%
155th in LOB%
31st in GB%
75th in HR/FB%
102.2 innings pitched

Gerrit Cole (NYY)

20th in FIP
13th in ERA
32nd in K-BB%
14th in LOB%
128th in GB%
38th in HR/FB%
123 innings pitched

Cole has continued his brilliance through the 2023 season. He is above average in pretty much every advanced statistic category, and today he get a fortuitous matchup. The Royals rank 29th vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Singer is an average pitcher who depends on inducing ground balls. The Yankees have been struggling of late vs RHP, but they should be able to produce enough run support in the first 5 innings to get this to the window.

Bet: Yankees (-260) First 5 innings

New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox under 4.5 runs (+100) First 5 innings

Max Scherzer (NYM)

91st in FIP
70th in ERA
27th in K-BB%
24th in LOB%
165th in GB%
111th in HR/FB%
94.2 innings pitched

James Paxton (BOS)

60th in FIP
49th in ERA
18th in K-BB%
36th in LOB%
112th in GB%
122nd in HR/FB%
59 innings pitched

Both pitchers are having average seasons, especially by their standards. They both do possess above-average K-BB% and LOB%. They will face off against two struggling offenses. The Mets rank 27th vs. LHP in wRC+ over the last month, and the Red Sox rank 28th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. I am banking on high strikeout rates and harmless fly balls.

Bet: Mets/Red Sox under 4.5 runs (+100) First 5 innings

Chicago White Sox (+120) @ Minnesota Twins (-150) First 5 innings

Dylan Cease (CWS)

48th in FIP
80th in ERA
46th in K-BB%
95th in LOB%
106th in GB%
60th in HR/FB%
107.2 innings pitched

Sonny Gray (MIN)

6th in FIP
28th in ERA
87th in K-BB%
57th in LOB%
22nd in GB%
2nd in HR/FB%
105.1 innings pitched

Gray has had a fantastic season so far. He is elite in forcing ground balls and limiting home runs. This combination has led him to a top-10 FIP ranking. He faces off against a middling White Sox lineup that ranks 19th vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. On the other hand, Cease will have a much more difficult matchup as the Twins rank 3rd vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month.

Bet: Twins (-150) First 5 innings is my favorite play of the day

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cleveland Guardians under 4.5 runs (-120) First 5 innings

Zack Wheeler (PHI)

8th in FIP
72nd in ERA
12th in K-BB%
126th in LOB%
90th in GB%
24th in HR/FB%
111.1 innings pitched

Tanner Bibee (CLE)

41st in FIP
36th in ERA
79th in K-BB%
39th in LOB%
118th in GB%
15th in HR/FB%
76 innings pitched

The angle here is simple we have two above-average pitchers who are elite in key areas facing off against two middling offenses. The Phillies rank 16th vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month and the Guardians rank 11th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month.

Bet: Under 4.5 runs (-120) First 5 innings

The Bets

ML Parlay

Minnesota (-150) First 5 innings
Mets/Red Sox under 4.5 runs (+100) First 5 innings

Parlay odds: +233 for 1.5 units

Lottery Ticket Parlay

Minnesota (-150) First 5 innings
Mets/Red Sox under 4.5 runs (+100) First 5 innings
Yankees (-260) First 5 innings
Phillies/Guardians under 4.5 runs (-120) First 5 innings

Parlay odds: +746 for 0.5 units

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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