MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Pitchers: Saturday (7/8)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jul 08, 2023

We are on an incredible run over the last three days!! We hit another parlay yesterday to the tune of +5.4 units!!! Over the last 3 days, we are up 10.58 units. Letâ€™s see if we can keep the hot streak going into the weekend!! Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 inning bets. Letâ€™s dive in!

Record

Parlay: 5-11 (+2.75 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-10 (-3.25 units)

Overall: -.50 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at starting pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will ignore arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in overlooked or overrated pitchers. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed.

Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.

Glossary:

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.

Saturday's Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 Inning plays. This helps us remove the randomness of bullpens. Our database has 170 starting pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched.

Texas Rangers (-180) @ Washington Nationals (+142) First 5 innings

Andrew Heaney (TEX)

116th in FIP
79th in ERA
75th in K-BB%
53rd in LOB%
124th in GB%
118th in HR/FB%
83 innings pitched

Jake Irvin (WAS)

126th in FIP
105th in ERA
159th in K-BB%
113th in LOB%
82nd in GB%
30th in HR/FB%
53.2 innings pitched

This angle is specifically geared toward Texasâ€™s offense vs RHP. Irvin has struggled to put it kindly in 2023. He will face off against a Texas offense that is ranked 5th vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Heaney isnâ€™t a world-beater, but he should be able to navigate through this porous Washington lineup that ranks 25th in wRC+ vs. LHP over the last month.

Bet: Texas (-180) First 5 innings

Atlanta Braves (-152) @ Tampa Bay Rays (+122) First 5 innings

Spencer Strider (ATL)

9th in FIP
53rd in ERA
2nd in K-BB%
80th in LOB%
152nd in GB%
106th in HR/FB%
98.1 innings pitched

Taj Bradley

58th in FIP
130th in ERA
9th in K-BB%
132nd in LOB%
138th in GB%
143rd in HR/FB%
56.1 innings pitched

Strider is having a Cy Young-caliber season. His elite K-BB% is only topped by Jacob DeGrom. Bradley has had a better season than his ERA indicates, but he is facing an Atlanta lineup that ranks 1st vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. I do not see him navigating that lineup with much success.

Bet: Atlanta (-152) First 5 innings is my favorite play of the day

Los Angeles Angels (+104) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) First 5 innings

Reid Detmers (LAA)

19th in FIP
58th in ERA
23rd in K-BB%
95th in LOB%
149th in GB%
42 in HR/FB%
82.1 innings pitched

Michael Grove (LAD)

144th in FIP
164th in ERA
90th in K-BB%
143rd in LOB%
99th in GB%
155th in HR/FB%
35 innings pitched

This is a pretty straightforward play. Detmers is an infinitely better pitcher in an infinitely better matchup. The Dodgers are 29th vs. LHP in wRC+ over the last month, and the Angels are 2nd vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month, as you can see extremely different situations. Grove only has pitched 35 innings, and they have been abysmal. Even without Mike Trout, the Angels should smash in this position.

Bet: Angels (+104) First 5 innings

The Bets

ML Parlay

Texas (-180) First 5 innings
Atlanta (-152) First 5 innings
Los Angeles Angels (+102) First 5 innings

This gives us three top-level offenses facing off against out-matched pitchers. These are extremely optimal situations.

Parlay odds: +424 for 1.5 units

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

Check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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