MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Pitchers: Sunday (7/16)
Yesterday did not turn out as planned but that is how the cookie crumbles sometimes. We have a standard Sunday slate that we can extract some value from. We have some solid matchups that we can take advantage of. Let’s dive in!!
Record
Parlay: 5-14 (- 2.25 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-11 (-3.75 units)
Overall: -6.00 units
Welcome to a new daily article where we look at starting pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will ignore arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in overlooked or overrated pitchers. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed.
Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.
Glossary:
K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.
For more about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.
Sunday's Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers
Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 Inning plays. This helps us remove the randomness of bullpens. Our database has 173 starting pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched.
New York Yankees (-230) at Colorado Rockies (+180) First 5 innings
Gerrit Cole (NYY)
- 27th in FIP
- 17th in ERA
- 40th in K-BB%
- 22nd in LOB%
- 124th in GB%
- 33rd in HR/FB%
- 117 innings pitched
Chase Anderson (COL)
- 173rd in FIP
- 172nd in ERA
- 138th in K-BB%
- 111th in LOB%
- 145th in GB%
- 169th in HR/FB%
- 44.2 innings pitched
There’s not much to say here. Anderson is dead last in FIP and bottom 5 in HR/FB%. Even though the Yankees lineup is struggling against RHP they should have a field day in this matchup. In contrast, Cole is having a tremendous year and gets a favorable matchup, the Rockies rank 27th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month.
Bet: Yankees (-230) First 5 innings is my favorite play of the day
Tampa Bay Rays (-184) at Kansas City Royals (+146) First 5 innings
Zach Eflin (TB)
- 12th in FIP
- 32nd in ERA
- 13th in K-BB%
- 61st in LOB%
- 12th in GB%
- 98th in HR/FB%
- 102.1 innings pitched
Brady Singer (KC)
- 82nd in FIP
- 143rd in ERA
- 130th in K-BB%
- 156th in LOB%
- 44th in GB%
- 54th in HR/FB%
- 94.2 innings pitched
Singer has had an infinitely better season than his ERA would indicate, but it still hasn’t been anything to write home about. Today he will face a Rays team that ranks 8th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Eflin will get a premier matchup vs the Royals who rank 28th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. He should be able to navigate this lineup with little resistance.
Bet: Tampa Bay (-184) First 5 innings
Washington Nationals (+164) at St. Louis Cardinals (-210) First 5 innings
Josiah Gray (WSH)
- 116th in FIP
- 43rd in ERA
- 123rd in K-BB%
- 10th in LOB%
- 77th in GB%
- 101st in HR/FB%
- 100.1 innings pitched
Jack Flaherty (STL)
- 67th in FIP
- 82nd in ERA
- 127th in K-BB%
- 72nd in LOB%
- 39th in GB%
- 19th in HR/FB%
- 92.2 innings pitched
Gray’s ERA is deceiving, he is having an infinitely worse season. He only ranks above 70th in one category, LOB%. He will face off against a Cardinals lineup that ranks 2nd vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Flaherty is having an average season but is excelling in key areas. He will face a struggling Nationals lineup that ranks 20th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month.
Bet: Cardinals (-210) First 5 innings
The Bets
First 5 Innings Moneyline Parlay
This gives us three solid pitchers facing off against struggling offenses.
Parlay odds: +222 for 2 units.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- 2023 NBA Summer League Odds, Picks & Predictions
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!