MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Pitchers: Sunday (7/23)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jul 23, 2023

Well, the Mets and Red Sox let us down for our ML Parlay. No worries though. We have a solid slate ahead of us today. There are some optimal matchups that we can take advantage of. Letâ€™s dive in and try to get a ticket to the window!!

Record:

Parlay: 5-19 (-7.30 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-11 (-4.25 units)

Overall: -11.55 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at starting pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will ignore arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in overlooked or overrated pitchers. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed.

Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.

Glossary

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.

Sunday's Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 Inning plays. This helps us remove the randomness of bullpens. Our database has 177 starting pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched.

Colorado Rockies (+220) @ Miami Marlins (-290) First 5 innings

Connor Seabold (COL)

174th in FIP
174th in ERA
156th in K-BB%
174th in LOB%
166th in GB%
130th in HR/FB%
59 innings pitched

Jesus Luzardo (MIA)

15th in FIP
37th in ERA
16th in K-BB%
49th in LOB%
79th in GB%
51st in HR/FB%
113.1 innings pitched

This a pretty straightforward play. Seabold is having one of the worst seasons in the league, and Luzardo is having one of the best seasons in the league. Not to mention Colorado is struggling offensively, ranking 21st vs. LHP in wrC+ over the last month. Do not overthink this.

Bet: Miami (-290) First 5 innings

Baltimore Orioles (+116) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-145)

Tyler Wells (BAL)

121st in FIP
55th in ERA
37th in K-BB%
13th in LOB%
164th in GB%
120th in HR/FB%
101.2 innings pitched

Taj Bradley (TB)

62nd in FIP
134th in ERA
8th in K-BB%
135th in LOB%
137th in GB%
144th in HR/FB%
66.1 innings pitched

Wellsâ€™s ERA ranking is extremely misleading. His best advanced statistical category is LOB%, which isnâ€™t a consistent statistic. Bradley has an elite K-BB% and has been extremely unfortunate with his ERA. He should shine against this middling Orioles offense that ranks 17th vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month.

Bet: Tampa Bay (-145) First 5 innings

Chicago White Sox (+118) @ Minnesota Twins (-148)

Lucas Giolito (CWS)

100th in FIP
69th in ERA
58th in K-BB%
44th in LOB%
146th in GB%
106th in HR/FB%
116 innings pitched

Bailey Ober (MIN)

24th in FIP
11th in ERA
36th in K-BB%
21st in LOB%
163rd in GB%
12th in HR/FB%
88.2 innings pitched

Giolito is going to have his hands full with a Twins lineup that ranks 6th vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. In contrast, Ober will face off against a struggling White Sox lineup that ranks 21st vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. The Twins should flourish in both matchups.

Bet: Twins (-148) First 5 innings is my favorite bet of the day

St. Louis Cardinals (-128) @ Chicago Cubs (+102)

Jordan Montgomery (STL)

24th in FIP
11th in ERA
36th in K-BB%
21st in LOB%
163rd in GB%
12th in HR/FB%
88.2 innings pitched

Jameson Taillon (CHC)

127th in FIP
151st in ERA
94th in K-BB%
173rd in LOB%
150th in GB%
101st in HR/FB%
77.1 innings pitched

Taillon has had an awful season all the way around. Today does not get much better for him as he faces a Cardinals lineup that ranks 2nd vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Montgomery is quite the opposite. He boasts an above-average K-BB% and an elite HR/FB%. That combination is always going to be tough to deal with. He faces a struggling Cubs lineup that ranks 24th vs. LHP in wRC+ over the last month.

Bet: Cardinals (-128) First 5 innings

The Bets

ML Parlay

Minnesota (-148) First 5 innings
St. Louis (-128) First 5 innings

Parlay odds: +198 for 2 units

Lottery Ticket Parlay

Minnesota (-148) First 5 innings
St. Louis (-128) First 5 innings
Tampa Bay (-145) First 5 innings
Miami (-290) First 5 innings

Parlay odds: +578 for 0.75 units

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:

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