MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Pitchers: Sunday (7/9)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jul 09, 2023

Yesterday ended our streak of three wins in a row. Alas, we have another solid slate of value to choose from. We are still crushing it over the last five days and look to continue our momentum into the All-Star break. Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 inning bets. Letâ€™s dive in!!!

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Record

Parlay: 5-12 (+1.25 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-10 (-3.25 units)

Overall: -2.00 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at starting pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will ignore arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in overlooked or overrated pitchers. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed.

Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.

Glossary:

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.

Sunday's Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 Inning plays. This helps us remove the randomness of bullpens. Our database has 171 starting pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched.

Colorado Rockies (+215) @ San Francisco Giants (-280) First 5 innings

Kyle Freeland (COL)

129th in FIP
115th in ERA
148th in K-BB%
110th in LOB%
105th in GB%
89th in HR/FB%
96.2 innings pitched

Logan Webb (SF)

26th in FIP
42nd in ERA
30th in K-BB%
66th in LOB%
1st in GB%
138th in HR/FB%
117 innings pitched

Webb is the premier groundball pitcher in the league. He also pairs that with an above-average K-BB%, which makes him even harder to deal with. He gets an incredibly optimal matchup today, facing off against the Rockies, who are 28th vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. He should be able to navigate this lineup without issue.

Bet: Giants (-280) First 5 innings

Chicago Cubs (+110) @ New York Yankees (-138) First 5 innings

Kyle Hendricks (CHC)

31st in FIP
13th in ERA
135th in K-BB%
162nd in LOB%
61st in GB%
2nd in HR/FB%
47.2 innings pitched

Domingo German (NYY)

106th in FIP
97th in ERA
62nd in K-BB%
140th in LOB%
118th in GB%
128th in HR/FB%
85.2 innings pitched

This angle is straightforward. The Yankees are 30th vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month, and they face a sneaky good Hendricks today. Hendricks is elite in limiting home runs. This, paired with his above-average ability to force ground balls, sets him up for a solid day against the Yankees. There is an extreme value in +110.

Bet: Chicago (+110) First 5 innings

Texas Rangers (-190) @ Washington Nationals (+150) First 5 innings

Dane Dunning (TEX)

56th in FIP
21st in ERA
120th in K-BB%
29th in LOB%
48th in GB%
21st in HR/FB%
66 innings pitched

Patrick Corbin (WAS)

132nd in FIP
121st in ERA
145th in K-BB%
95th in LOB%
59th in GB%
126th in HR/FB%
101.2 innings pitched

Corbin has had an underwhelming season, to say the least. I do not see that improving today. Texas is 2nd vs. LHP in wRC+ over the last month. Dunning, on the other hand, has had a serviceable season and will get a Washington lineup that ranks 23rd vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. I see Texas jumping out early and Dunning being able to limit Washington.

Bet: Texas (-190) First 5 innings is my favorite play of the day

Seattle Mariners (-135) @ Houston Astros (+108) First 5 innings

Logan Gilbert (SEA)

30th in FIP
59th in ERA
31st in K-BB%
131st in LOB%
73rd in GB%
66th in HR/FB%
101.1 innings pitched

Brandon Bielak (HOU)

140th in FIP
57th in ERA
149th in K-BB%
13th in LOB%
14th in GB%
147th in HR/FB%
50.1 innings pitched

Bielakâ€™s ERA is extremely misleading. He is completely dependent on the forcing ground balls. If he doesnâ€™t, it is an extremely long outing. Bielak will face off against a Marinerâ€™s lineup that is 5th vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Gilbert is having a solid season and is a trustworthy starting pitcher option in the league.

Bet: Seattle (-135) First 5 innings

The Bets

ML Parlay

Texas (-190) First 5 innings
San Francisco (-280) First 5 innings

This gives us two solid pitchers vs. struggling offenses. They should be provided with plenty of run support.

Parlay odds: +105 for 2 units

Lottery Ticket Parlay

Texas (-190) First 5 innings
San Francisco (-280) First 5 innings
Chicago Cubs (+110) First 5 innings
Seattle (-135) First 5 innings

This gives us four solid starting pitchers backed by above-average offenses.

Parlay odds: +638 for .5 units

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

Check out our other best bets for Sunday:

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