MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers: Thursday (6/23)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jun 23, 2023

Welcome back! Yesterday was a smaller slate, and we were able to cash a small parlay but missed the two totals we tried to attack. No worries, though, we have a full slate to choose from today, and it is presented with plenty of value. Letâ€™s dive in!!!

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Record:

ML: 10-7 (-.05 unit)
Parlay: 1-2 (-.07 unit)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-3 (-.75 unit)
Overall: -.87 unit

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at Starting Pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will be ignoring arbitrary basic statistics, such as ERA, Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in pitchers that are overlooked or overrated. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed. Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.

Glossary:

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more information about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary

Fridayâ€™s Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

The rankings for each category are based on the 159 Starting Pitchers who have at least 30 innings pitched this season. The database will grow as the season goes and we will adjust accordingly. Let's dive in!!!

Pittsburgh Pirates (+164) @ Miami Marlins (-196)

Luis Ortiz (PIT)

132nd in FIP
154th in K-BB%
81st in LOB%
14th in GB%
130th in HR/FB%
32.2 innings pitched

Jesus Luzardo (MIA)

37th in FIP
23rd in K-BB%
71st in LOB%
93rd in GB%
69th in HR/FB%
83.2 innings pitched

Ortiz is the exact style of pitcher we want to target. He has an abysmal K-BB% and HR/FB%. Luzardo, on the other hand, has a borderline elite K-BB%. Luzardo should be provided with plenty of run support to get this pick to the window.

Bet: Miami (-196) is the play.

Kansas City Royals (+215) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-260)

Zack Greinke (KCR)

95th in FIP
67th in K-BB%
115th in LOB%
71st in GB%
122nd in HR/FB%
76.2 innings pitched

Zach Eflin (TB)

17th in FIP
19th in K-BB%
59th in LOB%
10th in GB%
77th in HR/FB%
77.1 innings pitched

Greinke is a shell of the pitcher he used to be. Thatâ€™s something we can take advantage of in this matchup. Greinke is below-average in LOB% and HR/FB%, which can lead to disastrous results. Eflin is elite in K-BB% and GB%. This will limit the opportunity for big innings and will play in our favor.

Bet: Tampa Bay (-260) can be played confidently.

Los Angeles Angels (-154) @ Colorado Rockies (+130)

Patrick Sandoval (LAA)

63rd in FIP
130th in K-BB%
99th in LOB%
15th in GB%
24th in HR/FB%
70.2 innings pitched

Kyle Freeland (COL)

101st in FIP
127th in K-BB%
104th in LOB%
74th in GB%
76th in HR/FB%
80.1 innings pitched

Sandoval is the type of pitcher we want to back when traveling to Coors Field. Sandoval is an elite ground ball pitcher who can also limit home runs. Contrastly, Freeland is below average in every category that matters.

Bet: I am backing the Los Angeles Angels at (-154).

Arizona Diamondbacks (+154) @ San Francisco Giants (-184)

Zach Davies (ARI)

65th in FIP
122nd in K-BB%
158th in LOB%
78th in GB%
22nd in HR/FB%
31.2 innings pitched

Logan Webb (SF)

34th in FIP
27th in K-BB%
36th in LOB%
1st in GB%
143rd in HR/FB%
98.1 innings pitched

Davies is a solid pitcher but is second to last in LOB%. Pairing that with a below-average K-BB% can cause some problems. Webb is also a volatile pitcher, but he is the best at inducing ground balls. Webbâ€™s HR/FB% can be problematic, but I am going to lean towards his balanced profile in other areas.

Bet: San Francisco (-184) is the play.

The Bets

ML Parlay

Miami Marlins (-196)
Los Angeles Angels (-154)

This gives us two borderline elite pitchers that are elite in specialist areas.

Parlay odds: +149

Semi-Lottery Ticket Parlay

Miami Marlins (-196)
Los Angeles Angels (-154)
Tampa Bay Rays (-260)
Arizona Diamondbacks (-184)

This parlay gives us four favorites that are facing pitchers that are below average and can be taken advantage of. I would feel comfortable risking a half unit on this parlay.

Parlay odds: +426

Thanks again for reading, and if you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!!!

Check out our other best bets for Friday:

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