MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers: Thursday (6/29)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jun 29, 2023

What an abysmal day overall. Two larger favorites getting rocked really put a damper on our winning parlay. We are going to change it up a little bit and veer away from the straight ML plays, and focus more on smaller parlays. We will also be focusing on first 5 inning plays as those are more predictable because we know who will be pitching in those innings vs the randomness of relievers late in games. This allows us to really embrace the volatility of baseball in general. We will still keep our record posted and be completely transparent, just a different approach to hopefully garner better results. Letâ€™s dive in!

Record:

ML: 21-19 (-7.8 units)
Parlay: 2-6 (-1.13 units)
Lottery Parlay: 0-7 (-2 units)
Overall: -10.93 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at Starting Pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will be ignoring arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in pitchers that are overlooked or overrated. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed. Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.

Glossary:

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more information about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary

Thursdayâ€™s Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

The rankings for each category are based on the 164 Starting Pitchers who have at least 30 innings pitched this season. The database will grow as the season goes and we will adjust accordingly. Let's dive in!

San Diego Padres (-196) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+148) First 5 innings

Joe Musgrove (SDP)

64th in FIP
63rd in ERA
69th in K-BB%
69th in LOB%
54th in GB%
67th in HR/FB%
60.1 innings pitched

Luis Ortiz (PIT)

118th in FIP
55th in ERA
156th in K-BB%
60th in LOB%
10th in GB%
107th in HR/FB%
40.2 innings pitched

Joe Musgrove is a consistent, average pitcher across the board. He doesnâ€™t have any elite traits or any volatile areas of his game. While Luis Ortiz has been extremely fortunate with his 55th-ranked ERA, his FIP and K-BB% tell a completely different story. Ortizâ€™s inability to get strikeouts is going to hamper himself against a San Diego lineup that has been doing well as of late. San Diego is 8th in wRC+ vs RHP over the last month. Pittsburgh has been the complete opposite, ranking 29th in wRC+ vs RHP over the last month. This is an easy decision here.

Bet: San Diego (-194) first 5 innings.

Cleveland Guardians (-160) @ Kansas City Royals (+122) First 5 innings

Shane Bieber (CLE)

74th in FIP
49th in ERA
102nd in K-BB%
44th in LOB%
33rd in GB%
83rd in HR/FB%
100 innings pitched

Zack Greinke (KCR)

101st in FIP
127th in ERA
76th in K-BB%
144th in LOB%
73rd in GB%
121st in HR/FB%
81.1 innings pitched

As mentioned in previous columns, Zack Greinke is a real shell of himself and his 144th LOB% is alarming. On the other side, Shane Bieber leans on his GB% and LOB%. His FIP isnâ€™t as bad as Greinkeâ€™s but it is also nothing to write home about. The angle here really lies in the opposing offenses. Cleveland is 9th in wRC+ vs RHP over the last month, whereas Kansas City is 27th in wRC+ vs RHP over the last month. Cleveland first 5 innings is the play.

Bet: Cleveland (-160) first 5 innings can be played with confidence.

Chicago White Sox (+102) @ Los Angeles Angels (-132) First 5 innings

Lance Lynn (CHW)

114th in FIP
148th in ERA
41st in K-BB%
156th in LOB%
99th in GB%
152nd in HR/FB%
90 innings pitched

Patrick Sandoval (LAA)

73rd in FIP
80th in ERA
136th in K-BB%
92nd in LOB%
22nd in GB%
33rd in HR/FB%
75.2 innings pitched

Lance Lynn has been on a tear lately, but his FIP is still in the bottom half of the league. His HR/FB% tied with his LOB% is a disaster waiting to happen. If you get on base against Lynn, you are probably going to score. Patrick Sandoval is a ground ball pitcher who lets his defense do the work for him. This strategy plays perfectly because the White Sox are 29th in wRC+ vs LHP over the last month. In contrast, the Angels are 2nd in wRC+ vs RHP over the last month.

Bet: Los Angeles Angels (-132) first 5 innings.

Houston Astros @ St. Louis Cardinals Over 5.5 runs First 5 innings

JP France (HOU)

119th in FIP
46th in ERA
113th in K-BB%
13th in LOB%
57th in GB%
112th in HR/FB%
53.1 innings pitched

Adam Wainwright (STL)

135th in FIP
150th in ERA
161st in K-BB%
134th in LOB%
122nd in GB%
61st in HR/FB%
61 innings pitched

The angle is pretty simple here. We have two pitchers who are horrendous at striking out the opposition and are awful in FIP. To add insult to injury, these offenses have been on fire lately. Houston is 5th in wRC+ vs RHP over the last month and St. Louis is 3rd in wRC+ vs RHP over the last month. Expect a flurry of runs early.

Bet: over 5.5 runs (-122) in the first 5 innings is my favorite play of the day.

The Bets

ML Parlay

Angels (-132) first 5 innings
Cardinals/Astros Over 5.5 runs first 5 innings (-122)

This gives us two offenses that should flourish against abysmal pitchers and a team that is scorching offensively with a serviceable pitcher.

Parlay odds: +224 for 1 unit

Semi-Lottery Ticket Parlay

Angels (-132) first 5 innings
Cardinals/Astros Over 5.5 runs first 5 innings
San Diego (-194) first 5 innings
Cleveland (-160) first 5 innings

This gives us a direct path to victory early in all of these games.

Parlay odds: +718 for .5 unit

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

Make sure to check out our other favorite bets for Thursday:

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