MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers: Thursday (7/6)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jul 06, 2023

We got to the window yesterday with a Dodgers big 5th inning!! Weâ€™ve got some value today with solid pitchers facing offenses that are struggling of late. Letâ€™s see if we can keep the momentum going into todayâ€™s slate. Letâ€™s dive in!!

Record

Parlay: 3-11 (-5.65 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-10 (-3.25 units)

Overall: -8.90 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at Starting Pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will ignore arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in overlooked or overrated pitchers. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed. Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.

Glossary:

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.

Thursday's Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 Inning plays. This helps us remove the randomness of bullpens. Let's dive in!!!

Baltimore Orioles (-138) @ New York Yankees (+110) First 5 innings

Kyle Bradish (BAL)

44th in FIP
50th in ERA
61st in K-BB%
49th in LOB%
49th in GB%
70th in HR/FB%
78 innings pitched

Luis Severino (NYY)

162nd in FIP
147th in ERA
138th in K-BB%
143rd in LOB%
112th in GB%
150th in HR/FB%
40 innings pitched

Bradish has been an above-average pitcher all year in pretty much every category. He will face off against a Yankees team that has struggled of late. The Yankees are 26th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. His counterpart Severino has been dreadful in his 40 innings pitched this year. His FIP and HR/FB% are both bottom 20.

Bet: Baltimore (-138) First 5 innings

Texas Rangers (-135) @ Boston Red Sox (+108)

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)

13th in FIP
11th in ERA
43rd K-BB%
34th in LOB%
14th in GB%
29th in HR/FB%
112.1 innings pitched

Kutter Crawford (BOS)

96th in FIP
128th in ERA
37th in K-BB%
107th in LOB%
98th in GB%
132nd in HR/FB%
35.2 innings pitched

Eovaldi has been a premier pitcher this year. He is top 40 in every single advanced statistic metric. He will have a matchup that sets him up for another solid outing. Boston ranks 27th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Crawford has a decent K-BB%, but that is really all he brings to the table. He will face a Texas lineup that is scorching hot ranking 5th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month.

Bet: Texas (-135) First 5 innings is my favorite bet of the day

Kansas City Royals (+172) @ Cleveland Guardians (-220) First 5 innings

Jordan Lyles (KC)

150th in FIP
157th in ERA
135th in K-BB%
169th in LOB%
153rd in GB%
97th in HR/FB%
91.2 innings pitched

Tanner Bibee (CLE)

42nd in FIP
43rd in ERA
66th K-BB%
55th in LOB%
111th in GB%
20th in HR/FB%
65 innings pitched

I think the most alarming statistic for Lyles is his 169th LOB%. A whopping 49.7% of runners that reach base against him score. That is unreal. Bibee will face a putrid Royals offense that ranks 30th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. This is an easy choice.

Bet: Cleveland (-220) First 5 innings

ML Parlay

Baltimore (-138)
Texas (-135)
Cleveland (-220)

This gives us three above-average starting pitchers against struggling offenses. This is our only play for the day.

Parlay odds: +345 for 1.5 units

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

Check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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