MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers: Tuesday (6/20)
Welcome to a new daily article where we will look at Starting Pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will be ignoring arbitrary basic statistics such as ERA, Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in pitchers that are overlooked or overrated. The main statistic we will look at is FIP. FIP is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher’s ERA is earned or unlucky. This gives us an advantage over the betting public, and it, in general, just makes us more informed. Let’s dive into the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today’s slate.
Glossary:
K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.
For more information about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.
Tuesday’s Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers
The rankings for each category are based on the 156 Starting Pitchers who have at least 30 innings pitched this season. The database will grow as the season goes and we will adjust accordingly. Let’s dive in!!!
Atlanta Braves (-154) @ Philadephia Phillies (+130)
Spencer Strider (ATL)
- 24th in FIP
- 2nd in K-BB%
- 87th in LOB%
- 151st in GB%
- 104th in HR/FB%
- 78.2 innings pitched
Ranger Suarez (PHI)
- 12th in FIP
- 73rd in K-BB%
- 80th in LOB%
- 11th in GB%
- 22nd in HR/FB%
- 37.2 innings pitched
As you can see, we have two very different pitchers. Strider has one of the highest K-BB% ranks and one of the lowest GB% ranks. Strider also ranks below average in HR/FB% which is slightly concerning. I’m going to lean toward Suarez, who is being undervalued here and gives us plus money on a pitcher that most people do not know is elite in numerous categories.
Bet: Phillies (+130) and Phillies +1.5 RL (-138) are both in play.
Toronto Blue Jays (+100) @ Miami Marlins (-118)
Yusei Kikuchi (TOR)
- 140th in FIP
- 58th in K-BB%
- 3rd in LOB%
- 113th in GB%
- 151st in HR/FB%
- 71 innings pitched
Eury Perez (MIA)
- 53rd in FIP
- 60th in K-BB%
- 1st in LOB%
- 153rd in GB%
- 29th in HR/FB%
- 35 innings pitched
These are two extremely similar pitchers. The main difference is Perez does not allow home runs at the rate Kikuchi does. This produces an obvious difference in FIP. Miami should feast and coast in this matchup.
Bet: Miami (-118) is the play.
Seattle Mariners (+110) @ New York Yankees (-130)
George Kirby (SEA)
- 15th in FIP
- 26th in K-BB%
- 54th in LOB%
- 48th in GB%
- 41st in HR/FB%
- 80.2 innings pitched
Gerrit Cole (NYY)
- 29th in FIP
- 33rd in K-BB%
- 18th in LOB%
- 115th in GB%
- 42nd in HR/FB%
- 91.2 innings pitched
To the casual fan, this would be an easy decision. The majority of baseball fans know who Gerrit Cole is and probably have no idea who George Kirby is. Looking at this line, you can definitely see value in Kirby as he is outperforming Cole in every metric except for LOB%. Kirby is well-balanced and can get the job done in numerous aspects.
Bet: Seattle (+110) and Seattle +1.5 RL (-200) are both in play.
St. Louis Cardinals (-154) @ Washington Nationals (+130)
Jordan Montgomery (STL)
- 36th in FIP
- 63rd in K-BB%
- 79th in LOB%
- 51st in GB%
- 52nd in HR/FB Rank
- 78.1 innings pitched
Mackenzie Gore
- 67th in FIP
- 43rd in K-BB%
- 13th in LOB%
- 59th in GB%
- 124th in HR/FB%
- 74.2 innings pitched
Montgomery is slightly above average in every category, and that, in return, allows him to have a higher-than-expected FIP. Gore, on the other hand, is volatile when it comes to HR/FB%. He ranks bottom 30 out of all qualifying starters. St. Louis has a significant advantage on the mound, and I’m going with them.
Bet: Cardinals ML (-154)
Chicago Cubs (-126) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+108)
Marcus Stroman (CHC)
- 27th in FIP
- 95th in K-BB%
- 33rd in LOB%
- 2nd in GB%
- 44th in HR/FB%
- 91.2 innings pitched
Johan Oviedo (PIT)
- 45th in FIP
- 111th in K-BB%
- 108th in LOB%
- 27th in GB%
- 12th in HR/FB%
- 75.2 innings pitched
Stroman is elite in forcing ground balls, and he does so at a 60% rate. Oviedo, on the other hand, pairs a below-average K-BB% with a below-average LOB%. This is not something we are looking for when analyzing pitchers. Oviedo is elite in limiting home runs, but that’s just not enough. Stroman is strong enough in the areas that matter to us.
Bet: Chicago (-126)
New York Mets (+130) @ Houston Astros (-154)
Justin Verlander (NYM)
- 85th in FIP
- 85th in K/BB%
- 89th in LOB%
- 99th in GB%
- 81st in HR/FB%
- 45 innings pitched
Framber Valdez (HOU)
- 8th in FIP
- 22nd in K-BB%
- 36th in LOB%
- 5th in GB%
- 61st in HR/FB%
- 91 innings pitched
Valdez has been utterly dominant this year. His elite FIP and elite GB% are tough to go up against. Verlander has been a shell of himself. He has been average at best, and in reality, this line should be much wider.
Bet: Houston (-154)
Texas Rangers (-134) @ Chicago White Sox (+114)
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)
- 9th in FIP
- 25th in K-BB%
- 42nd in LOB%
- 15th in GB%
- 19th in HR/FB%
- 93.2 innings pitched
Dylan Cease (CWS)
- 61st in FIP
- 59th in K-BB%
- 104th in LOB%
- 85th in GB%
- 62nd in HR/FB%
- 79.1 innings pitched
Eovaldi has been electric in pretty much every category. His ability to limit home runs while also forcing ground balls is an incredible pairing of skills. Cease is slightly above average in several categories, but his 104th in LOB% gives a lot to be desired. A few runs are all Eovaldi might need.
Bet: Texas (-134)
The Bets
ML Parlay
- Houston (-154)
- Texas (-134)
- Miami (-118)
This gives us a direct path to victory. We have two aces in Eovaldi and Valdez, while we target Kikuchi, who is 141st in FIP.
Parlay odds: +432
Lottery ticket Parlay
- Houston (-154)
- Texas (-134)
- Miami +1.5 (-215)
- Seattle +1.5 (-200)
- Philadelphia +1.5 (-134)
- Chicago (-130)
This is exactly what it says a lottery ticket parlay. I wouldn’t risk more than .25 units on it or whatever you are comfortable with parting ways with. There is a direct path to victory in every game and playing against public biases.
Parlay odds: +1796
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:
- MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- NFL Futures PrizePicks Predictions
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Thanks again for reading, and if you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!!!