MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers: Tuesday (6/27)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jun 27, 2023

Finally got back on the right track yesterday. The Mets let us down and could have made it a great all-around day. Alas, 3-1 is always a good day. We have a plethora of excellent pitchers today and very few subpar pitchers. Letâ€™s dive in and try to continue our winning ways!!

Record:

ML: 17-15 (-4.66 units)
Parlay: 1-5 (-1.57 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-6 (-1.75 units)
Overall: -7.98 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at Starting Pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will be ignoring arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in pitchers that are overlooked or overrated. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed. Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.

Glossary:

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more information about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary

Tuesdayâ€™s Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

The rankings for each category are based on the 163 Starting Pitchers who have at least 30 innings pitched this season. The database will grow as the season goes and we will adjust accordingly. Let's dive in!

San Diego Padres (-180) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+152)

Yu Darvish (SD)

56th in FIP
111th in ERA
43rd in K-BB%
126th in LOB%
58th in GB%
101st in HR/FB%
80 innings pitched

Rich Hill (PIT)

89th in FIP
91st in ERA
94th in K-BB%
112th in LOB%
139th in GB%
63rd in HR/FB%
83 innings pitched

Darvish is not having a Cy Young-type season, but he is considerably better than his ERA would indicate. Hill is pretty much exactly what you see. His underlying statistics are on par with his surface-level statistics. From an offensive standpoint, San Diego is 4th in wRC+ vs. LHP, and Pittsburgh is 24th in wRC+ vs. RHP.

Bet: San Diego (-180) can be played with confidence

Los Angeles Dodgers (RL -1.5 -186) @ Colorado Rockies

Clayton Kershaw (LAD)

33rd in FIP
14th in ERA
14th in K-BB%
8th in LOB%
36th in GB%
119th in HR/FB%
89.1 innings pitched

Connor Seabold (COL)

155th in FIP
138th in ERA
138th in K-BB%
130th in LOB%
134th in GB%
121st in HR/FB%
43 innings pitched

This is pretty straightforward. Seabold is one of the worst pitchers in the league, while Kershaw is close to his old self. To add insult to injury, Los Angeles is 8th in wRC+ vs. RHP, and Colorado is 30th in wRC+ vs. LHP.

Bet: Los Angeles -1.5 RL (-186). Donâ€™t overthink it.

Chicago White Sox (+172) @ Los Angeles Angels (-205)

Michael Kopech (CWS)

133rd in FIP
75th in ERA
72nd in K-BB%
9th in LOB%
127th in GB%
128th in HR/FB%
82 innings pitched

Shohei Ohtani (LAA)

64th in FIP
26th in ERA
12th in K-BB%
23rd in LOB%
50th in GB%
134th in HR/FB%
89 innings pitched

Kopechâ€™s ERA does not tell the whole story. He is having an infinitely worst season than meets the eye. His LOB% is the only thing keeping him afloat. Kopech is 128th in HR/FB%, which is concerning against the Angels, who are 4th in wRC+ vs. RHP. Ohtani has an elite K-BB%, which helps counteract his 134th HR/FB% ranking. Chicago should 0ffer little resistance as they are 28th in wRC+ vs. RHP.

Bet: Angels (-205) is the play.

The Bets

ML Parlay

Los Angeles Angels (-205)
Los Angeles Dodgers RL -1.5 (-184)
San Diego Padres (-180)

This gives us three aces facing abysmal offenses. I would risk one unit with confidence.

Parlay odds: +256

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

Make sure to check out the rest of our best bets for Tuesday:

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