MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers: Wednesday (6/28)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jun 28, 2023

We have had a solid start to the week, going 5-2 ML and just missing out on a couple of ML parlays. Darvish did not show up last night, and it could have really been a solid bump to our overall record. No worries, though. We always have the potential to have a significant day because baseball always presents us with value. Letâ€™s dive in!!!

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Record:

ML: 19-16 (-4.46 units)
Parlay: 1-6 (-2.57 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-6 (-1.75 units)
Overall: -8.78 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at Starting Pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will be ignoring arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in pitchers that are overlooked or overrated. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcherâ€™s ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed. Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to todayâ€™s slate.

Glossary:

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcherâ€™s value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more information about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary

Wednesdayâ€™s Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

The rankings for each category are based on the 164 Starting Pitchers who have at least 30 innings pitched this season. The database will grow as the season goes and we will adjust accordingly. Letâ€™s dive in!

Washington Nationals (+215) @ Seattle Mariners (-260)

Patrick Corbin (WAS)

128th in FIP
127th in ERA
145th in K-BB%
109th in LOB%
40th in GB%
132nd in HR/FB%
89.2 innings pitched

Logan Gilbert (SEA)

40th in FIP
75th in ERA
23rd in K-BB%
133rd in LOB%
82nd in GB%
78th in HR/FB%
86.1 innings pitched

Corbin is exactly the kind of pitcher we want to bet against, he is completely dependent on the ground ball, and even then, thatâ€™s not enough. Gilbert, on the other hand, has a borderline elite K-BB% and is average in HR/FB% and GB%. Gilbert has also outperformed his ERA by the indication of his 40th ranking in FIP. Laying -260 is a lot of juice, but this matchup justifies it.

Bet: Seattle (-260) is the play

Cincinnati Reds (+146) @ Baltimore Orioles (-174)

Luke Weaver (CIN)

139th in FIP
153rd in ERA
91st in K-BB%
126th in LOB%
127th in GB%
136th in HR/FB%
60.1 innings pitched

Kyle Gibson (BAL)

65th in FIP
88th in ERA
118th in K-BB%
92nd in LOB%
60th in GB%
22nd in HR/FB%
92 innings pitched

Weaver has an abysmal advanced stat profile, he is considerably below average in every single category. Gibson is serviceable and is formidable in limiting home runs. This angle is more of attacking Weaver than backing Gibson. Baltimore is 10th in wRC+ vs. RHP. They should be able to get Weaver out of the game early on.

Bet: Baltimore (-174) can be played with confidence.

San Francisco Giants (+102) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-120)

Logan Webb (SFG)

39th in FIP
26th in ERA
35th in K-BB%
41st in LOB%
1st in GB%
148th in HR/FB%
105.1 innings pitched

Chris Bassitt (TOR)

121st in FIP
90th in ERA
97th in K-BB%
104th in LOB%
80th in GB%
118th in HR/FB%
93.2 innings pitched

Webb is the premier ground ball pitcher in the MLB. Not only is he exceptional at forcing ground balls, but he also is above average in K-BB%. Webbâ€™s only weakness is his HR/FB%. The good thing is Toronto ranks 18th in HR/FB% vs RHP. Bassitt, on the other hand, is below average in every single category. San Francisco is 7th in wRC+ vs. RHP and should be able to take advantage of Bassitt.

Bets: San Francisco (+102) has extreme value.

Detroit Tigers (+176) @ Texas Rangers (-210)

Joey Wentz (DET)

135th in FIP
154th in ERA
115th in K-BB%
149th in LOB%
101st in GB%
129th in HR/FB%
62.2 innings pitched

Dane Dunning (TEX)

81st in FIP
27th in ERA
148th in K-BB%
32nd in LOB%
52nd in GB%
28th in HR/FB%
51.1 innings pitched

Wentz has the potential to be in for an extremely long outing or short outing, if you get what I mean. Texas is 2nd in wRC+ vs. LHP and should have a field day. Dunning has actually been quite lucky, as you can see the difference in his ERA and FIP ranking. Luckily Detroit is 29th in wRC+ vs. RHP. Dunning should be able to navigate this offense fairly easily. Texas is my favorite play of the day.

Bet: Texas (-210) is my favorite play of the day.

Tampa Bay Rays (-152) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+128)

Zach Eflin (-152)

27th in FIP
37th in ERA
22nd in K-BB%
45th in LOB%
12th in GB%
111th in HR/FB%
83.1 innings pitched

Zach Davies (+128)

76th in FIP
163rd in ERA
141st in K-BB%
163rd in LOB%
61st in GB%
13th in HR/FB%
35.2 innings pitched

Eflin is a borderline elite pitcher. He ranks top 40 in FIP, K-BB%, and GB%. Davies has really outperformed his 163rd ERA ranking, but there are a couple of things we cannot gloss over. Daviesâ€™s ranking of 141st in K-BB% and 163rd in LOB% is truly horrifying when facing Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is 1st in wRC+ vs. RHP and has the potential to feast in this matchup.

Bet: Tampa Bay (-152) is the play.

The Bets

ML Parlay

Texas Rangers (-210)
Tampa Bay Rays (-152)

This gives us two solid pitchers who will be backed by offenses in optimal situations.

Parlay odds: +144

Lottery Ticket Parlay

Texas Rangers (-210)
Tampa Bay Rays (-152)
Baltimore Orioles (-174)
Seattle Mariners (-260)
San Francisco Giants (+102)

This is exactly what it says, a lottery ticket parlay. I wouldnâ€™t risk more than .25 units on it or whatever you are comfortable with. This gives us five starting pitchers who are better than their counterparts and several offenses that are in fortuitous situations to back them up.

Parlay odds: +941

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

Check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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