MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Pitchers: Wednesday (7/19)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jul 19, 2023

We are currently on a downswing and looking to turn it around here in the middle of the week. We have another solid slate to choose from and will target First 5 inning plays. Letâ€™s see if we can get a winner to the window!! Letâ€™s dive in!!!

Record

Parlay: 5-16 (-5.75 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-11 (-3.75 units)

Overall: -9.50 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at starting pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will ignore arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in overlooked or overrated pitchers. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcherâ€™s ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed.

Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to todayâ€™s slate.

Glossary

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcherâ€™s value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.

Wednesdayâ€™s Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 Inning plays. This helps us remove the randomness of bullpens. Our database has 174 starting pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched.

Cleveland Guardians (-128) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+102) First 5 innings

Aaron Civale (CLE)

48th in FIP
7th in ERA
102nd in K-BB%
12th in LOB%
110th in GB%
13th in HR/FB%
57.2 innings pitched

Rich Hill (PIT)

87th in FIP
113th in ERA
116th in K-BB%
128th in LOB%
126th in GB%
58th in HR/FB%
104 innings pitched

Civale has excelled in two areas this year, stranding runners and limiting home runs. Thankfully he probably wonâ€™t have many runners as the Pirates are 30th vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. In contrast, Hill hasnâ€™t excelled in much of anything this year. Cleveland should be able to provide enough run support to take an early lead.

Bet: Cleveland (-128) First 5 innings

Arizona Diamondbacks (+186) @ Atlanta Braves (-240) First 5 innings

Ryne Nelson (ARI)

107th in FIP
121st in ERA
138th in K-BB%
106th in LOB%
130th in GB%
49th in HR/FB%
99.1 innings pitched

Charlie Morton (ATL)

42nd in FIP
30th in ERA
67th in K-BB%
27th in LOB%
26th in GB%
62nd in HR/FB%
104 innings pitched

This is a pretty simple angle. Nelson is a below-average pitcher and will be facing a Braves lineup that ranks first vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. In contrast, Morton is having a solid season and gets to face a middling Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 18th vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month.

Bet: Braves (-240) First 5 innings is my favorite play of the day

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Baltimore Orioles over 4.5 runs (-156) First 5 innings

Julio Urias (LAD)

106th in FIP
88th in ERA
37th in K-BB%
64th in LOB%
131st in GB%
131st in HR/FB%
70.1 innings pitched

Dean Kremer (BAL)

116th in FIP
103rd in ERA
63rd in K-BB%
56th in LOB%
139th in GB%
134th in HR/FB%
104 innings pitched

These two pitchers are extremely similar. Both of their weaknesses are allowing home runs. Unfortunately, that could be an even bigger issue today. Both lineups are on fire, the Dodgers rank fifth vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month, and the Orioles rank third vs. LHP in wRC+ over the last month. They should sail over the 4.5 total with ease.

Bet: over 4.5 runs (-156) First 5 innings

The Bets

ML Parlay

Cleveland (-128) First 5 innings
Atlanta (-240) First 5 innings
Dodgers/Orioles over 4.5 runs (-156) First 5 innings

This gives us two solid pitchers facing struggling offenses and two ascending offenses facing two below-average pitchers.

Parlay odds: +314 for 1.5 units.

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

Check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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