MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers: Wednesday (7/5)
Hope you had a fun and safe 4th of July. We are back at it again today with a solid slate ahead of us that presents great value. Let’s see if we can get a winner to the window.
Record
Parlay: 2-11 (-7.83 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-9 (-2.75 units)
Overall: -10.58 units
Welcome to a new daily article where we look at Starting Pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will ignore arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in overlooked or overrated pitchers. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed. Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.
Glossary:
K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.
For more about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.
Wednesday's Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers
Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 Inning plays. This helps us remove the randomness of bullpens. Let's dive in!!!
Colorado Rockies (+164) @ Houston Astros (-210)
- 168th in FIP
- 166th in ERA
- 131st in K-BB%
- 113th in LOB%
- 131st in GB%
- 162nd in HR/FB%
- 40.2 innings pitched
- 110th in FIP
- 27th in ERA
- 126th in K-BB%
- 8th in LOB%
- 36th in GB%
- 106th in HR/FB%
- 60.1 innings pitched
Anderson is having a horrendous year. He is bottom 10 in FIP and HR/FB%. He also will get little relief in this matchup, as Houston is 3rd vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. France is below average in FIP and K-BB%, but he does induce ground balls at a decent rate. He will face a putrid offense of late. Colorado is 27th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month.
Bet: Houston (-210) First 5 innings is my favorite play of the day
Oakland Athletics (+182) @ Detroit Tigers (-235)
- 169th in FIP
- 156th in ERA
- 154th in K-BB%
- 69th in LOB%
- 134th in GB%
- 160th in HR/FB%
- 48.2 innings pitched
- 13th in FIP
- 2nd in ERA
- 34th in K-BB%
- 14th in LOB%
- 71st in GB%
- 40th in HR/FB%
- 67.2 innings pitched
Rodriguez has been one of the few bright spots for the Tigers this year. He has an elite FIP and is solid across the board with few weaknesses. Waldichuk is the complete opposite. He is dead last in FIP and his peripheral stats back that up. Rodriguez should cruise as Oakland is 30th vs LHP in wRC+ over the last month.
Bet: Detroit (-235) First 5 innings
Pittsburgh Pirates (+205) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-265)
- 25th in FIP
- 81st in ERA
- 93rd in K-BB%
- 118th in LOB%
- 19th in GB%
- 8th in HR/FB%
- 38.1 innings pitched
Pittsburgh’s pitcher does not have enough innings to qualify for an advanced statistic profile. No need to worry though because this angle is directly tied to their offense of late. Miller will face off against an abysmal Pirates offense that ranks 30th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Miller has outperformed his ERA by a wide margin. His ability to limit home runs and force groundballs makes up for his below-average K-BB%.
Bet: Dodgers (-265) First 5 innings
Kansas City Royals (+215) @ Minnesota Twins (-280)
- 27th in FIP
- 82nd in ERA
- 10th in K-BB%
- 101st in LOB%
- 93rd in GB%
- 69th in HR/FB%
- 102 innings pitched
Kansas City’s pitcher did not qualify for an advanced statistical profile but yet again the angle is geared towards their struggling offense. Lopez gets the benefit of facing a Royals offense that is 28th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Lopez has a premier K-BB% ranking and thus has outperformed his ERA by a considerable amount. He should be able to cruise through this Kansas City offense.
Bet: Minnesota (-280) First 5 innings
Texas Rangers (-108) @ Boston Red Sox (-116)
- 91st in FIP
- 30th in ERA
- 91st in K-BB%
- 26th in LOB%
- 118th in GB%
- 81st in HR/FB%
- 87 innings pitched
- 47th in FIP
- 25th in ERA
- 81st in K-BB%
- 32nd in LOB%
- 5th in GB%
- 72nd in HR/FB%
- 73 innings pitched
The angle for this game is again geared toward the offenses. Bello is the superior pitcher, who is elite at forcing ground balls. The difference is Texas is crushing the ball lately and ranks 5th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Bello’s average K-BB% could be concerning against this juggernaut offense. On the other hand, Boston is 29th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Gray hasn’t been stellar, but he is serviceable and can keep his team in the game.
Bet: Texas Rangers (-108) First 5 innings
ML Parlay
- Houston (-210) First 5 innings
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-265) First 5 innings
This gives us two serviceable pitchers facing horrendous offenses of late.
Parlay odds: +109 for 2 units
Semi-Lottery Parlay
- Houston (-210) First 5 innings
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-265) First 5 innings
- Detroit (-235) First 5 innings
- Minnesota (-280) First 5 innings
- Texas (-108) First 5 innings
We get five solid starters facing off against the bottom 5 offenses of late.
Parlay odds: +680 for .5 unit
Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!
Check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- 2023 WNBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
- 2023 NBA Summer League Odds, Picks & Predictions
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