MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (10/18)
Many of Major League Baseball’s biggest stars rose to the occasion in an outstanding doubleheader of LCS baseball yesterday. Former MVPs Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Mookie Betts homered and we saw our first extra-inning game of the playoffs, which ended in dramatic fashion with a walk-off home run. What excitement will today’s second straight LCS doubleheader bring?
Read on for our top MLB picks for Friday, October 18.
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Friday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-138) @ New York Mets (+118) | O/U 7.5 (+104/-128)
Freddie Freeman was absent from the Dodgers lineup yesterday with his ailing ankle. But it did not matter in the slightest, as the team's other two former MVPs set the tone early and often.
Shohei Ohtani homered in the first at-bat of the game (his second straight game with a home run), which was the fourth-hardest hit home run in the NL this season, and scored four runs. And the other MVP, Mookie Betts, set a career postseason-high with four RBIs while going 4-for-6 with three more runs scored.
The scary thing about the Dodgers lineup is that prior to Game 4, it was more of the unsung heroes that were doing damage. Max Muncy (more on him later) had two home runs and a .692 on-base percentage, Kike Hernandez was batting .333 with a home run, and Tommy Edman was batting .455 with four RBIs, while his nine hits this postseason was leading the team.
Even Will Smith went 2-for-4 in Game 3 after going 2-23 in the previous seven postseason games.
WIth a lineup that good, you cannot give them many free passes and expect not to get burned. The Mets were already just the second team in MLB history to allow seven or more walks in three consecutive games, and they issued nine more walks (and hit one batter) in Game 4. Twelve of those 31 batters that walked came around to score.
None of this analysis mentions that Mets starter David Peterson has not pitched more than three innings in three weeks, while Jack Flaherty is on normal rest and allowed two hits over seven shutout innings in a Game 1 win.
The Dodgers and Brewers were the only teams to beat the Mets in three straight road games this season, and I expect Los Angeles to do so again while punching its World Series ticket.
MLB Pick: Dodgers Moneyline (-138)
New York Yankees (-120) @ Cleveland Guardians (+102) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
Two pitchers that have yet to pitch this postseason matchup in a pivotal Game 4. Luis Gil last pitched on September 28 for the Yankees while Gavin Williams’ last action was on September 22 for the Guardians. While some would argue their arms should be strong and ready to go, I believe the rust factor will be more apparent.
With neither pitcher likely to complete five innings, this game will once again come down to whose bullpen performs better. However, neither bullpen can say they have extreme confidence entering this game.
The seemingly unhittable Emmanuel Clase allowing more home runs already this postseason (three) than he did all regular season (two), and Luke Weaver allowed a game-tying two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth, which led to New York’s previous closer, Clay Holmes, allowing a walk-off home run in the 10th.
The Yankees continue to get production from up and down their lineup, and is ready to take off with Aaron Judge homering for the second straight game. Meanwhile, Cleveland had already seen David Fry’s heroics with a big home run prior to yesterday, but and a rookie (Jhonkensky Noel) coming up big with a pinch-hit home run and 10 different Guardians hitters coming up with base hits yesterday, and that should feed their confidence at the plate in Game 4.
New York had profited Over backers +16 units over the previous 113 games entering yesterday, while Cleveland had cashed the Under in 29 of 46 games prior to Game 3. However, with new confidence that the Guardians can score runs, the Over is the right side of this total tonight.
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-115)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.