Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (6/7)
Entering Thursday, there were just nine teams in Major League Baseball with winning records, and two of those teams play a mammoth interleague series this weekend. Two of the three games this weekend between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees will be nationally televised, and the potential World Series preview provides an early glimpse at where both teams stack up against elite competition. They are a combined 15 games over .500 against teams with a winning record, and though it might be the sharpest line on the board with all the attention paid to the series opener, it is one of our three plays going into the weekend.
Let’s dive into my top MLB picks for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
MLB Picks & Predictions: Friday’s Best Bets
Here are our top three MLB picks and predictions for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-124) @ New York Yankees (+106) | O/U 9 (-102/-120)
Dodgers righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto makes his 13th start tonight, but his first against an American League opponent. Ever since a rough debut where he allowed five earned runs in just one inning of work against the San Diego Padres, he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in nine of his last 11 starts, and has struck out seven-plus batters in five of the last eight. Yamamoto has also done a much better job of inducing ground balls, with as many or more ground balls induced than fly balls in six consecutive starts, after a six-start stretch where his ground ball to fly ball ratio was 27:45. That is essential in the short dimensions of Yankee Stadium, where New York has the highest HR/FB percentage (16.3%) in home games in the majors. In addition, Juan Soto left yesterday’s game with forearm tightness, and the Yankees lineup is not as deep if he were forced to sit today.
New York’s starting pitchers have pitched to a ridiculous 2.17 ERA and have gone 22-5 since May 1, but Cody Poteet is simply a fill-in for the injured Clarke Schmidt, and we look for Los Angeles to take advantage of that in the series opener. Poteet has allowed an xSLG of .499 or better on two of his three primary pitches, and we expect a Dodgers team that is 27-14 in their last 41 games to take full advantage.
MLB Pick: Dodgers Moneyline (-124)
Chicago Cubs (-110) @ Cincinnati Reds (-106) | O/U 9 (-102/-120)
Is all right with the Chicago Cubs after a two-game sweep of the lowly Chicago White Sox? We are not ready to proclaim them all fixed, especially since they had lost six consecutive series leading up to that, including losing two out of three to the Cincinnati Reds at home just two series ago.
The Cubs did win the one game that southpaw Justin Steele started in that series, though it was more a product of his offense bailing him out, as Steele allowed five runs (one earned) with seven hits and four walks in just five innings. That is just one instance of Steele’s struggles against the Reds, as Cincinnati hitters have combined for a .339/.392/.503 slash line in 62 at-bats against him.
While things seem on the decline with the Cubs, the Reds are showing flashes of playing better baseball. After going 9-18 in May, Cincinnati led the NL in OPS last week, and entered this series winners of five of its last six games, and its three series wins in its last four includes a home sweep of the Dodgers, out-scoring them 16-8 over the three games. Nick Lodolo leads the team with five wins, and he is 2-0 in his two starts against NL Central opponents, holding the Cubs and Cardinals to three runs in 11 1/3 innings. Thus, we are backing the home team in the second-game of this four-game series.
MLB Pick: Reds Moneyline (-106)
Cleveland Guardians (-122) @ Miami Marlins (+104) | O/U 8 (-102/-120)
Entering their series finale with the Kansas City Royals, the Cleveland Guardians had gone 29-15 in their last 44 games, and covered the runline in 34 of their last 60 while profiting bettors +12.95 units and returning a 19% ROI in that span. We expect another big Cleveland victory in this game, as the Guardians send southpaw Logan Allen to the mound, and the Miami Marlins are an abysmal 2-19 against left-handed starting pitchers this season.
Miami’s offensive numbers against southpaws are abysmal, as it is collective slashing .223/.273/.316 with a 68 wRC+ and a .093 ISO in that split. Meanwhile, the Guardians entered Thursday averaging 6.3 runs per game over their last 10 games, and they have juggernaut Steven Kwan back from injury atop their lineup, who was batting .353 prior to going on the IL. We understand that Allen is a pitcher who finished with xERAs of 6.37 or worse over his previous two healthy seasons, but he looks much better so far with an xERA more than two full runs lower, and the Marlins aren’t enough of an offensive threat to expose his weaknesses.
MLB Pick: Guardians -1.5 (+138)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.