Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (8/30)
The last weekend of August is upon us, and several MLB division races are growing in intensity by the day. Based on the Kansas City Royals taking three out of four games from the Cleveland Guardians earlier this week, the AL Central division lead nearly changed hands. As it stands, all three American League division races are separated by four or fewer games. And while the NL East race was trending to be considered as over earlier this month, the Atlanta Braves have a real opportunity to strike fear in the Philadelphia Phillies, as they start the day six games back and have three more games against them Friday through Sunday.
What is in store for today’s loaded 16-game MLB slate? Read on for our MLB best bets for Friday, August 30.
Friday’s Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
St. Louis Cardinals (+144) at New York Yankees (-172) | O/U 8.5 (-122/+100)
The New York Yankees had ample opportunities to gain ground on the Baltimore Orioles over the last week, as the Orioles were navigating the most difficult part of their remaining schedule with seven games against the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers. However, New York disappointingly went 3-3 against the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals, two of the three worst teams in the National League.
The Yankees underperforming against poor teams has been a theme of their entire season, as they are 47-30 against team currently over .500, but just 31-26 against teams with losing records. The Yankees also surprisingly have a much better road record (42-27) than home record (36-29), and send arguably their most inconsistent starting pitcher to the mound, as they are 4-4 in Marcus Stroman’s last eight starts. Stroman also has plenty of history with the St. Louis Cardinals from his days with the Chicago Cubs, and his 1-6 record with a 5.30 ERA in 10 career starts against St. Louis makes for his second-worst winning percentage (.143) against any opponent in his career.
Conversely, opponents have averaged 2.8 runs per game in Erick Fedde’s last four games as a member of the Cardinals, and with him on pace for career-bests in xBA, xSLG, wOBA, xwOBA, and xERA, the Cardinals are a great value play to pull the upset in this road series opener.
Pick: Cardinals ML (+144)
Kansas City Royals (+140) at Houston Astros (-166) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
The Royals impressively won three of four games against the Guardians to further cement themselves as real threats for the AL Central division title. However, tonight’s starter, Seth Lugo, did not pitch in that series, and his performances lately against teams over .500 does not inspire much confidence for the matchup with the Astros.
Kansas City is 0-4 in Lugo’s last four starts against teams currently with a winning record, and has been outscored 35-11 in that span. Lugo was battered for 18 earned runs over 19 2/3 innings over that four-start stretch, and it is fair to wonder if he has hit a late-season swoon, with his ERA rising for four consecutive months (1.79 in May, 3.48 in June, 4.78 in July, and 5.76 in August).
His counterpart, Framber Valdez, is getting stronger as the year goes on, and he entered the week as one of six pitchers with seven starts of at least seven innings pitched while allowing one or fewer earned runs. The Astros had won 10 straight games with Valdez toeing the rubber prior to their 3-2 loss against the Orioles in his last outing, but Valdez was one out away from getting through six scorless innings in that start, and reliever Tanner Scott promptly surrendered the game-deciding three-run home run on his first pitch in relief of Valdez.
Houston was 38-22 in its last 60 games entering Thursday’s series opener against Kansas City, and profited bettors 11.35 units (13% ROI) in that span. I am backing the Astros to secure another big win today.
Pick: Astros Moneyline (-166)
New York Mets (-215) at Chicago White Sox (+180) | O/U 9 (-115/-105)
The New York Mets begin the day three games out of a wild card spot in the NL, and are the first NL team outside of a playoff spot. They have a prime opportunity to gain ground in the race this weekend, facing the historically bad Chicago White Sox.
Chicago’s struggles this season have been well-documented, but Jessica Brand added a new spin on how historically bad of a season the White Sox have had.
New York’s moneyline odds are relatively cheap in this matchup, considering that it is 0-4 in Tylor Megill’s last four starts. However, the last three starts came against the Twins, Braves, and Astros who are all at least 10 games over .500. Despite the perceived value in backing the Mets, the Over is the smarter play, as Megill is making his first start with the club in August, and the White Sox lineup has performed much better of late, ranking 11th in OPS and an eye-popping second in the majors in BABIP (.348) in home games against right-handed pitchers in August.
Pick: Over 9 runs (-115)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.