Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/13)
There are plenty of exciting series around Major League Baseball this weekend that will keep bettors and fans engaged through all of the college football and NFL action. The Phillies are too far away from the rest of the competition to be caught in the NL East at this point, but this is a huge series for the Mets, who are fighting to remain in a wild card spot. One of the teams they are neck and neck with, the Braves, are in for a dogfight all weekend as they host the Dodgers in a possible playoff preview. And no matter where they are in the standings, it is always appointment television when the Red Sox and Yankees meet in the Bronx.
What is in store for today’s loaded 15-game MLB slate? Read on for our MLB best bets for Friday, September 13.
Friday’s Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kansas City Royals (+104) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-122) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)
On a team with Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino is at best the third most valuable player on the Royals. However, with how Kansas City has hit since he landed on the IL on August 29, one could make the argument he is much more valuable than that.
Prior to Pasquantino suffering a broken thumb (which will keep him out 6-8 weeks total), Kansas City was collectively slashing .257/.313/.424. However, since the injury, the Royals have the worst OPS in the league, while slashing .207/.264/.308 as a team, and they rank last in the AL in wRC+.
Pittsburgh’s Luis Ortiz has allowed a .241 xBA and .435 xSLG this year, and ranks second to Paul Skenes among all Pirates pitchers in WAR (3.3). The full-game Under is 9-3 in Kansas City’s last 12 games (+6.75 units/50% ROI), and I expect Ortiz to do his part in keeping the Royals off the scoreboard tonight.
Pick: Pirates ML (-122)
Miami Marlins (+120) at Washington Nationals (-142) | O/U 8.5 (+100/-122)
Nationals southpaw DJ Herz’s last start came in the opener of a doubleheader against the Pirates, and he dazzled with five no-hit innings before being removed after 87 pitches. Herz lowered his ERA to 2.86 since the All-Star Break, and has now allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his previous nine starts.
In Herz’s only start against Miami this year, he allowed just one hit over six scoreless innings, and his 13 strikeouts were the second-most by a Nationals rookie (one behind Stephen Strasburg’s 14) since the team moved back to Washington in 2005. Miami has struggled with left-handed starting pitchers all season, going an MLB-worst 10-41 in that split entering Thursday, and that .196 winning percentage is even worse than the Chicago White Sox’s .206 winning percentage against southpaws.
Washington was a profitable 78-59 against the runline in its last 137 games entering Thursday (+9.85 units/5% ROI), and with each of its last 11 wins coming by two or more runs, I am opting for the better value by backing the Nationals on the runline instead of the moneyline.
Pick: Nationals -1.5 (+140)
Cincinnati Reds (+184) at Minnesota Twins (-220) | O/U 8.5 (-102/-120)
The Twins have fallen out of the AL Central race (5.5 games back of the Guardians with 16 games to play), but they are firmly entrenched in the third wild card spot for now being 3.5 games up on the division rival Tigers, so there is plenty of meaningful baseball to be played down the stretch.
At this point, seemingly the only two Twins starting pitchers one can trust at this point are Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober. In Ober’s case, Minnesota is 7-4 in his last 11 starts, but in three of those losses, he threw a quality start and received two or fewer runs of support twice. Run support should not be an issue today when facing Julian Aguiar (Cincinnati’s No. 11 prospect), as the righty has allowed a troubling .511 xSLG, a 13.5% barrel rate, and his xERA (5.37) is higher than his actual ERA (5.06).
Minnesota is 4-1-1 in its six series against teams under .500 in the second half of the season, and I expect it to walk away with a big win over a surprisingly hot Reds team that was 7-3 in their last 10 games entering Thursday. And while Cincinnati is 3-1 in games played with a rest disadvantage, I expect regression in that sense with the Twins being off yesterday while the Reds finished their series with the Cardinals on Thursday afternoon.
Pick: Twins -1.5 (-104)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.