Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/20)
There are plenty of exciting series around Major League Baseball this weekend that will keep bettors and fans engaged through all of the college football and NFL action. The Phillies are too far away from the rest of the competition to be caught in the NL East at this point, but this is a huge series for the Mets, who are fighting to remain in a wild card spot. One of the teams they are neck and neck with, the diamondbacks, are in for a dogfight all weekend as they travel to the Brewers in a possible playoff preview. And few thought the series between the Tigers and Orioles in late September would be meaningful at the start of the season, but Detroit is all of a sudden tied for the last wild card spot, while Baltimore is fighting to hold the top spot in the AL.
What is in store for today’s loaded 15-game MLB slate? Read on for our MLB best bets for Friday, September 20.
Friday’s Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers (+164) at Baltimore Orioles (-196) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
Which team has the best record in baseball since August 11, and by a wide margin actually? It is the Detroit Tigers, who have won 25 of 35 games since that date, and entered yesterday as the only MLB team with a winning percentage better than .657 in that split. A big reason for that success in that span is a team ERA of 2.50 and collective 3.23 FIP, while allowing just a 0.62 HR/9 rate and .254 BABIP. Against a lineup in the Orioles that is so reliant on home runs, Detroit’s pitching staff should prove to be the perfect foil all weekend.
While much of the attention in Detroit’s rotation is paid to likely Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, Keider Montero has quietly gone about his business, with a BABIP of .272 since August 11 (Skubal’s is .317) and a 0.47 HR/9 rate. Montero’s control issues (3.29 BB/9) in that stretch are the only thing jumping out as a negative, but his 3.29 ERA is certainly not, and Baltimore is not the most patient team at the plate anyway.
I would have backed Detroit’s moneyline odds if Orioles righty Corbin Burnes were not toeing the rubber, so instead I will back the Under, especially since Baltimore’s team total Under was 50-27 in its last 77 games entering Thursday (+20.75 units/23% ROI).
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
Seattle Mariners (-104) at Texas Rangers (-112) | O/U 7 (-122/+100)
Jacob deGrom took the mound in a big-league game for the first time in 504 days last week, and he certainly did not look rusty, striking out four batters over 3 2/3 scoreless innings. deGrom did allow four hits, but the two-time Cy Young winner has the lowest career WHIP and the second-lowest career ERA of any active pitcher with a minimum of 1,000 innings pitched.
He was limited to 61 pitches in that start, which also came against Seattle, and considering the Rangers eventually lost that game 5-4 despite leading 4-0 entering the bottom of the seventh inning, I am limiting this wager to the first five innings. The Mariners entered yesterday ranked first in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers since the start of September, but I expect them to struggle once again when facing deGrom. The righty has a great chance of holding Seattle scoreless again, and that makes for great value on the Rangers’ first five innings moneyline.
Pick: Rangers First Five Innings Moneyline (-130)
Colorado Rockies (+194) at Los Angeles Dodgers (-235) | O/U 9.5 (+100/-122)
At the rate that Dodgers righty Walker Buehler is going, the team may have to think long and hard about using him in their playoff rotation, even though they may have no choice. Buehler has put a lot of stress on the bullpen lately, as he has pitched into the sixth inning just once in his previous nine starts. He is coming off an August where he pitched to a 6.00 ERA, and his 8:8 K:BB ratio in that month suggests he is having trouble putting hitters away. Buehler ranks in the 11th percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, chase percentage, and whiff rate, and the Rockies rank a respectable 11th in ISO against right-handed pitching in September.
As long as the Padres are within striking distance in the NL West, the Dodgers will not be able to get veterans days off that may need it, so we should see L.A.’s optimal lineup against Kyle Freeland tonight. Freeland has allowed an OPS of .861 or better to five Dodgers hitters (among those with a minimum of 12 at-bats against him), and the scary thing is none of those players are named Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, or Freddie Freeman.
The Dodgers had cashed the Over in 44 of their last 70 games (+18.90 units/25% ROI) entering Thursday, and Colorado’s team total Over is 32-27 in its last 59 road games, which means we should be in for a slugfest between these NL West rivals.
Pick: Over 9.5 (+100)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.