Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/27)
The Major League Baseball playoff picture is starting to take shape, as the final two division races were sewn up last night, and all but six teams have been eliminated from postseason contention. However, there are still plenty of meaningful games to be played throughout this final weekend, and we have covered many of them in our best bets column for today.
Read on for our MLB best bets for Friday, September 27.
Friday’s Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Baltimore Orioles (+144) at Minnesota Twins (-172) | O/U 8.5 (-115/-105)
The Orioles held off the Yankees from clinching the AL East division on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the dam broke with last night’s 10-1 loss. Still, I am not buying Baltimore’s late-season resurgence, considering Baltimore’s two wins in the series were against pitchers that should not figure heavily at the top of the team’s playoff rotation (Clarke Schmidt and Marcus Stroman).
This was still an Orioles team that prior to the Yankees series had only one three-game winning streak since the calendar turned to July, and those wins were against the two of the three worst teams in the league (White Sox and Rockies).
In what is a must-win spot for the Twins, I trust ace Pablo Lopez, who made seven consecutive quality starts (and the team was 5-2 in that span) prior to his latest blow-up against the Red Sox.
Before that poor start at Fenway Park, Lopez had won five consecutive decisions, but this bet is just as much a fade of Cade Povich, who would not be on the Orioles roster at this point in the season if not for their rotation being ravaged by injuries. The Orioles are 1-4 and have been out-scored by seven runs in Povich’s last five starts (the only win in that span was against the White Sox), and the southpaw ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in walk rate, barrels, and ground balls rate.
Pick: Twins -1.5 (+114)
New York Mets (-116) at Milwaukee Brewers (-102) | O/U 7.5 (-118/-104)
The Mets were dealt a poor hand with back-to-back rainouts to end their series with the Braves, now having to play a doubleheader on Monday in Atlanta if the playoff picture is not completely set by then. And while the sentiment heading into this series with the Brewers is that New York has the upper hand with Milwaukee “not having anything to play forâ€, I would not think the Brewers would lay down this early in the series with still four days remaining before the playoffs actually start.
Baseball is very much a rhythm game, and it was not beneficial for the Mets to sit around for two days and leave Atlanta in the worst of the bad weather. And while Sean Manaea was supposed to pitch on Wednesday, the extra two days of rest will likely impact him the most. Manaea has a .525 winning percentage and pitched to a 4.68 ERA in 81 career starts on five days’ rest, while his winning percentage and ERA on four or six days’ rest in comparison are significantly better. And while Milwaukee is one game under .500 (22-23) against left-handed starting pitchers this year, I expect Frankie Montas to pitch well, considering he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts.
Give me the team playing at home, that knows it is staying at home into next weekend, against the team that has everything to lose, and has the conundrum of how it is going to navigate next week’s doubleheader in the backs of their minds.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-102)
St. Louis Cardinals (+104) at San Francisco Giants (-122) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
The Giants have had nothing to play for for quite awhile now, but they have done an excellent job playing spoiler. This month alone, San Francisco has won series at San Diego, at Baltimore, at Kansas City, and at Arizona, all teams that could find themselves playing playoff baseball next week.
Many baseball bettors will only be interested in games of meaning down the stretch, but this is an opportunity to capitalize on great value in a place where oddsmakers may not have given their full attention. San Francisco’s Landed Roupp has made a great case to join the rotation next season, as he has allowed zero runs in three of his last four starts, and given up just two earned runs in his last 20 innings total. Meanwhile, veteran Miles Mikolas has a negative WAR rating on the season (-0.1) and is faltering down the stretch, pitching to a 6.35 ERA and .309 OBA over the previous 30 days.
Pick: Giants Moneyline (-122)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.