Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (3/28)
While there were 14 games on the Major League Baseball slate yesterday, Friday still has an Opening Day feel of sorts, as the Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Rays make their season debuts this afternoon.
Many teams schedule a built in off day today just in case yesterday’s Opening Day festivities were rained out. That leaves just nine games on today’s schedule, but still plenty of opportunities for bettors to cash in.
Read on for our top MLB best bets for Friday, March 28th.
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Friday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Colorado Rockies (+166) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-198) | O/U 8 (-110/-110)
The Tampa Bay Rays performed admirably well against left-handed pitching last year, ranking fourth in BABIP and 13th in on-base percentage. The problem was that they ranked in the middle of the pack in wRC+, in large part because they did not hit for power against southpaws.
The Rays ranked 26th in home runs hit against left-handed pitching, which is why they were also in the bottom half of the league in ISO. Thus, I do not expect many crooked innings when facing Kyle Freeland, who was Colorado’s most consistent pitcher last season.
Conversely, I believe in Ryan Pepiot has a 44% strikeout rate against this current Rockies roster, and had 11 punch-outs the last time he faced them. With the Rays’ moneyline being too steep to back, the Under makes the most sense here.
Pick: Under 8 Runs (-110)
Boston Red Sox (-120) @ Texas Rangers (+102) | O/U 8.5 (-124/+1028)
The Red Sox and Rangers project to be two of the best offensive clubs in the American League this season. I love the Alex Bregman pickup for Boston, who slides into a lineup that was already top-10 in runs scored last year. Getting on base at a high rate should do wonders for Rafael Devers, who was often pitched around without as much protection last year.
I am also expecting a big bounceback from a Rangers lineup that was the A.L.’s best in 2023, but took a huge step back last year. With Marcus Semien and Corey Seager healthy to start the year, I expect the lineup as a whole to perform well, especially against Tanner Houck. The Rangers have collectively slashed .290/.362/.593 against Houck, with four home runs in just 62 at-bats.
The Over was 7-1 in the last eight games between the Red Sox and Rangers prior to yesterday’s Opening Day, and I expect it to be the right side of the total again.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-124)
Chicago Cubs (+110) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-130) | O/U 8.5 (-122/+100)
The Cubs have a small built-in advantage over the Diamondbacks with two regular season games under their belts, although some would argue that advantage is mitigated by the travel to Japan.
Either way, Chicago’s Jameson Taillon is an underrated back-end piece to its rotation. He has had great career success against Arizona, holding current Diamondbacks to a combined .195/.251/.351 slash line and a 23.2% strikeout rate through 82 combined at-bats.
Arizona’s Merrill Kelly was limited to just 73 2/3 innings pitched last year, and is coming off his worst year since his rookie season in terms of FIP. Kelly pitched to an alarming 4.70 ERA and 1.565 WHIP, while walking nearly three batters per nine innings in spring training. He may find his groove later in the year, but this early in the season, I am fading him and backing the Cubs to win outright.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (+110)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.